Tim Wakefield is on the mound, trying to save the season. Just when you thought the Sox couldn’t ask any more of a 41 year-old knuckleball pitcher, they essentially decide to put their entire season on his fragile, aching back. Nice call Tito Francona.
Still, that’s the hand that Boston has been dealt. Because big-ticket free agent pick-ups of the past, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka, couldn’t get the job done in Games 2 or 3, the Sox are relying on the bargain basement innings eater to win a game. In case people have forgotten, for all Wakefield’s 2004 heroics (which, once again, focused largely on eating innings), the last time he had to save a season it didn’t work out. Ask the White Sox.
As a result, while Josh Beckett stews in the dugout wishing he were on the mound and getting even more pissed off heading into his start in Game 5, the ol’ flutterball will be on display. Or so we hope. Remember, Wakefield has taken struggling to a whole new level coming down the stretch this year. After starting off at a near 20-win pace and holding it through much of the season, Wakefield’s track got sloppy in the final few times out, leading many to wonder whether he would make the postseason roster at all, let alone in time to start an ALCS game.
Now here he is starting against a lineup that’s chewed up Schilling and Matsuzaka, and he’s pitching against a guy who, regardless of results, will definitely not have a hard time finding the strike zone. While Paul Byrd’s approach could help or hurt the Sox, depending on whether they revert to the patient group that frustrated C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona or if they keep swinging away early as they did last night, it could very well be a stunning contrast to Wakefield, who has to find the zone early if he’s going to be effective at all.
Now it’s time to find the answers to all those questions, starting in the top of the first. Or so Sox fans can hope.
Seriously, let’s try not to dwell on it. In fact, after this entry we’re officially going to try and pretend Game 2 of the 2007 ALCS never actually happened. But while we’re stuck thinking about last night’s 11th inning beating, let’s do the rundown of everything we learned, shall we?
1) Eric Gagne is officially a waste of a roster spot at this point. In fact, if he could come up lame with a sore shoulder so we could slip Julian Tavarez or Kyle Snyder back on the playoff pen, that’d be great.
2) Despite a solid single batter spot in the ALDS, Javier Lopez still can’t get out lefties. And he’s a sidewinding lefty. Go figure.
3) Curt Schilling may not be his former dominant postseason self. All he was against the Indians was average, and his inability to get through even five innings - or hold a lead, for that matter - cost Boston dearly, and could eventually cost it the series. We know, we cringe to hear it, too, but it’s the truth.
4) Even with David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Mike Lowell bashing their heads off, the Indians lineup is so balanced it can make up for it. That’s a terrifying thought.
5) All that talk about how maybe we’d be better off with Jon Lester starting Game 4 instead of Tim Wakefield? Yeah, we’re sorry we even mentioned that.
6) Now Daisuke Matsuzaka practically HAS to win on Monday. He has to. Or else Boston is all but screwed.
But we’re not talking about any of this stuff anymore, or about how we rolled over this morning and saw the Wicked Witch of the West. It hurts too much.
So do pictures of the disaster, so enjoy the text heavy post folks. We’ll be back soon in search of something uplifting. We hope.
Hey Manny and Papi? You paying attention? This is the dude Curt needs you to hit. And hit him hard, and early, if possible. Gracias amigos.
After last night’s latest edition of “Josh Beckett is a playoff badass”, the Red Sox have the Indians right where they want them, at home, with a 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven series.
But if Cleveland and suddenly sensational ace Fausto Carmona can pull out Game 2 tonight, the dynamic of the rest of the ALCS could swing drastically. The Sox are sending longtime postseason stallwort Curt Schilling to the mound, which should increase their chances of shutting down Cleveland’s balanced lineup for a second straight night.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that if the Big Schill can’t do that, Cleveland will suddenly emerge from Boston with a significant upper hand heading back to Lake Erie. While that doesn’t necessarily herald the entrance of bad things, it would put additional pressure on the back of Daisuke Matsuzaka before Game 3, and probably just as much pressure on the still-recovering Tim Wakefield in Game 4. Dice-K has a couple things going for him heading into his start. He was brilliant last time around in Cleveland, he was solid despite struggling to locate his pitches in Game 2 of the ALDS and his postseason resume - at least on a global level - is still pretty sterling. Despite all of that, it’s virtually inarguable that the absolute last thing he needs is more pressure before his start.
Here’s hoping that Schill and the Gang (seriously, how many band names could we come up with that start with Schilling’s name? The possibilities are endless) are up to the task for a second-straight game tonight. While Boston is still floating on Game 1 euphoria, Game 2 is much more important than some may currently think.
It may not be the Yankees, but the Indians enter tonight’s matchup in Fenway Park is equally anticipated, if that’s possible. The Red Sox start a best-of-seven journey that they hope ends in the World Series.
Josh Beckett hunts deer, elk and a variety of birds in the winter. In October he hunts zeros.
The weather has turned to fall just in time to greet the first pitch, which will be fired out by a guy some Sox fans wanted out of town a year ago, yet now are clamoring to try and find a way to pitch three times in an ALCS. That’s how drastic a turnaround young Josh Beckett, still only 27, has gone through in the past 12 months. From maligned No. 2 starter to ace and possible Cy Young winner, Beckett’s move from mediocre to momentous has been nothing short of a full-fledged awakening.
And now he’s pitching in the exact kind of games that drew the Sox front office to Florida’s door, begging for him after the 2003 season. His Game 1 performance in the ALDS was a complete whitewash of the Angels and set the tone for Boston’s sweep. Now, he’ll try to attack a remarkably balanced Cleveland lineup and mow through batters the way he did a week and a half ago.
Not that Boston can take any sympathy on Cleveland hitters. The Indians have quite the ace of their own, C.C. Sabathia, who might pry the Cy Young from Beckett’s very grasp. While Sabathia was dominant throughout the regular season, he has a rough first playoff start against the Yankees, and was also outdueled by Daisuke Matsuzaka in his last outing against the Sox. Does that mean he’ll have troubles at the Fens tonight? Not necessarily, though the resurgent bats of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz beckon. Or so Sox fans hope.
And that hope, as 2004 showed, is enough to bouy spirits and, eventually, lift a team. We’re getting closer to finding out if it can happen again.
For the second straight playoff round, Red Sox Monster has set up a pretty strong blogger roundtable surveying Boston’s prospects for the round ahead. We were part of the group again hosted by Red Sox Monster and MassLive’s inimitable Dan Lamothe, so we thought we’d share our answers in preview of tonight’s Sox-Indians series starter. For those interested in the full roundtable answers, which also included bloggers from Red Sox Stat Guy, Sox & Dawgs and The Joy of Sox and Texas Gal of Babes Love Baseball. Definitely a good anticipatory read. Here’s the entire piece for your perusal: Red Sox Monster Roundtable
And while we may not have hit the mark as squarely on some questions as our friends in the blogosphere, here’s our distilled question-by-question answers for your perusal. Interested to see what everyone thinks.
1) One of the big things we all have been hearing this week is that the Indians have an advantage because of Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia. Last time I checked, though, the Red Sox beat Sabathia in a nail-biter once already this year and won five out of seven against the Tribe. How does Beckett-Schilling vs. Sabathia-Carmona play out for the two teams?
This, clearly, is the duel duels of the playoffs, if you will. I like Beckett over Sabathia because of both home field advantage and the performance of both pitchers in Game 1 of their respective ALDS’s. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen Beckett more in control than he was in Game 1 against the Angels, and Sabathia looked nervous throughout his team’s win. That being said, it’s possible that moving away from the Jacob’s Field crowd will help C.C. We’ll have to see.
As for Schilling-Carmona, Game 2 scares me significantly more. Carmona already has one win over the Sox, a terrific 1-0 outdueling of Beckett, and while Fenway Park was a house of horrors for him last year there’s no indication it will be in the playoffs. His slider was falling off the table in the ALDS, and outside of Beckett, he may have looked better than every other pitcher in baseball in Round One. Meanwhile, Schilling starting in Fenway again scares me a bit. He’s been more prone to home runs at home, and while Francona is likely to show a much quicker hook in the ALCS than during the regular season, there’s still the possibility of a suddenly big inning out there. So, I’m going to predict a split in Games 1 and 2, though a Schilling gem and 2-0 Sox lead wouldn’t completely shock me, just surprise me.
2) What about Games 3 and 4? How worried should Sox fans be about Matsuzaka-Wakefield/Lester? Also, should Sox fans be licking their chops when they see Jake Westbrook on the mound, or were his regular season stats against Boston (10 hits and five earned runs in six innings) a fluke?
Lost amidst all the talk about moving Schilling into the 2 slot was that it means Dice-K will start Game 3 in Cleveland. And perhaps lost in the analysis of that is just how impressive the Dice man was at Jacob’s Field earlier this year. He pitched a complete game win, out doing C.C. Sabathia, and helping the Sox win the season series. Clearly, that was a huge win in retrospect. Meanwhile, there’s no reason to doubt Westbrook’s stats against the Sox, particularly in the aftermath of another dismal performance in the ALDS, when the Yankees cleaned his clock. On paper, it looks like a very good matchup for the Sox.
Game 4, understandably, is much more troubling. Wakefield has looked absolutely cooked after his most recent back injury, and there’s concern over just how healthy he may be. If Wake isn’t comfortable, his knuckleball won’t move right and he’ll get clobbered. Meanwhile, Byrd is a wily veteran who doesn’t walk batters, gets tough outs and sent the Yankees to the golf course. I’m getting a headache just thinking about this match up, so let’s move to the next question.
3) When analysts talk about Boston’s strengths this year, the deep bullpen always comes up. Cleveland’s wasn’t bad, though, finishing with the sixth best ERA (3.75) in the Majors. How important is getting to the Indians bullpen, and where do potential advantages for the Red Sox lay?
Getting to the bullpen is actually only an advantage against Sabathia and Carmona, because that duo has been so nasty. The two Rafaels have been almost unhittable and seem to be surging in the postseason. And while the numbers aren’t kind to Joe Borowski, Sweaty Joe does keep getting results. Really, how Boston hits off the Indian relievers in Games 1 and 2 really may set a tone for the entire series. Get mowed down and the Tribe kids may get more confidence and roll from there. Knocking in a few late-inning runs early – particularly off the Rafaels - could be all but essential.
4) The Indians had six players hit between 18 and 25 home runs, but no one with more than that. They also had only one starter, Victor Martinez hit more than .300 (he hit .301). How should Boston pitch to the Cleveland lineup?
While there may not be too many stellar OPS guys, Cleveland’s lineup is much, MUCH more balanced than Boston’s. There’s not any easy outs. Martinez has been an absolute terror, Hafner seems to be peaking at just the right time and there’s youth abundant. I’m not sold on Asdrubal Cabrera, ALDS homer aside, and first baseman Ryan Garko is so streaky that the Sox may be able to handle him. Grady Sizemore wasn’t too impressive in Round One, but he scares me and I think could secretly be the key to the series. If he starts getting on to lead off games and innings – particularly against Dice-K and Wake – major problems could follow. It’s not a pretty picture. The other big problem looming? Kenny Lofton, the center fielder who just never goes away. He had his best postseason series in years against the Yanks and seems poised to cause more headaches in Fenway.
5) One Trot Nixon returns to the postseason on Friday, as well. He doesn’t play much anymore… will he have any impact on the series, and what kind?
Trot seems ticketed for one or two key pinch hitting spots, particularly in Fenway. Remember, the every day Indian in right is a rookie (Franklin Gutierrez) so a couple bad at bats in the friendly confines and Eric Wedge may flex his well-documented right to re-consider his lineup. After all, Trot does know how to lace a hot grounder down that first base line, doesn’t he?
6) Tell me something the common fan misses when discussing the series. Any surprises jump out at you when looking at the two teams and their statistics?
There’s an emerging perception that Papelbon is the big x-factor in this series because he’s more reliable than Borowski, but it strikes me that the much bigger factor is the teams’ respective middle relievers. Assuming Tito Francona goes with Okie Dokie in the 8th inning setup role again before Papelbon, that still leaves question marks in the sixth and seventh innings. Assuming Sox starters can get there, Manny Delcarmen seems to be the main go-to-guy for a sixth inning look. That leaves Mike Timlin and Eric Gagne – who gave up a meaningless run in Game 3 against the Angels – to fight out the seventh inning. Will Francona actually trust Gagne in a tight spot late, or will he take his chances with the 40 year-old jack of all trades Timlin? Will Timlin still be sharp after not pitching in a game in two weeks? Lester is clearly the long-man, but would the Sox use him if Dice-K falters? Lots of questions here, to be sure. Meanwhile, the Sox have to prove they can hit the Rafaels and Jensen Lewis. There’s absolutely no guarantee they can, and just ask the Yankees how easy it is. Put it all together and, despite all the attention being placed on Borowski, any late homers off him won’t matter unless Boston can hit the earlier guys.
Another fascinating plot line revolves around the tendency of Sox players who are former Indians to perform ridiculously well at Jacob’s Field. Just look at Coco’s number from the early season series. If Coco, Alex Cora in a pinch, Manny Ramirez, etc. come through, the series could swing on that alone.
7) So, who wins? Why?
I’m going with the Sox in 6 or 7. If you pinned me down I’d say seven, because I can’t imagine Schilling beating Carmona in a Game 6 at Jacob’s Field. Still, I think Boston will be able to pull out a couple of wins behind bashes from Ortiz and Ramirez, who finally looks dialed in for the first time this year. Additionally, I really am looking for big things from Coco Crisp, who was a monster in Cleveland earlier this year. Add strange statistical aberrations like Bobby Kielty’s success against C.C. Sabathia, and I think Boston will claw this one out. But it’ll be close, it’ll require a lot of TUMS and (not or) Pepto Bismol, and it will have Sox fans clamoring for NL opponents, which could end up biting Boston in the World Series (if Colorado wins the NLCS). Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Really, Curt Schilling just had to prove he still had it, huh?
Curt Schilling proved that he still has big playoff performances left in the veins. Now he gets to prove he’s got more in Game 2 Saturday.
With Red Sox Nation still buzzing over an ALDS sweep and overwhelming sense of shaudenfreude over the latest Yankee collapse, there was actual news to be made Tuesday, when Terry Francona announced that Schilling, and not Daisuke Matsuzaka, would start Game 2 at Fenway Park.
It’s an interesting shift. Dice-K didn’t pitch badly in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Angels, but he did have some serious rocky moments. The bullpen got involved earlier than wanted, and against a much more balanced lineup like the one Cleveland throws at a pitcher, it’s doubtful the Dice-man would have even lasted the 4 2/3 innings that he did.
That being said, some of what seemed to make Schilling’s dominance Sunday in Anaheim was predicated by the Angels’ big park. That should help Dice-K, too, but Schilling seems to gain so much from pitching in bigger parks than Fenway. He’s not the strikeout dominant pitcher he was when he came to Boston, that much has been proved over and over again. Still, isn’t that supposed to be who Dice-K currently is? Sure, he gives up some contact, but he gets lots of strikeouts, and most of his contact comes on hits that are bloops to the outfield or liners through the infield.
Schilling, meanwhile, gives up an even higher quotient of SSS’s (Schilling Solo Shots) in Fenway than he does anywhere else. The friendly confines have a hard time holding a lot of the fly balls that are long outs in places like Anaheim and, possibly, Cleveland.
Now, with all those prior things being said, we’re definitely not going to say that Francona is making a bad call in the shift. Schilling was absolutely masterful Sunday, dominating the Angels and looking even better after he got an early lead. It was the kind of postseason performance that has becoming vintage Schilling over the years; you just got the feeling that the game was over and won in about the fourth inning. That’s a great feeling.
Similarly, Dice-K has performed better on the road than he has at home throughout stretches of the year. By taking the pressure away from a Fenway start, it’s possible that he’ll settle earlier, avoid the first and second inning contact and cruise through a few innings, a luxury not afforded him against the Angels.
Will any of this happen? Who knows. But at the moment, it seems like a good idea. And right now, let Francona pull the trigger when he needs to. Worked well in round one, don’t you think?
Two games does not a series make, but two wins goes a long way toward making one incredibly palatable.
That’s the opportunity the Sox face tonight, hosting the Angels for Game 2. Daisuke Matsuzaka makes his long-awaited playoff debut, with the Angels throwing the twice-unfortunately named Kelvim Escobar at Boston. That’s not all the Angels are throwing out there, either. Manager Mike Scoscia juggled his lineup, pushing Vlad Guerrerro back into the outfield to create room for another bat in the DH hole.
It’s Dice-K time, but will it be gut-check time in Boston?
While it might seem early for that kind of adjustment, this is the playoffs, and the Angels looked positively baffled against Josh Beckett Wednesday. On top of that, LA has never seen Matsuzaka, missing his turn in the rotation in both stints at Fenway and when the Sox hit the left coast in July.
It’s a seeming advantage for Dice-K, a point Scoscia has already made himself. But the bigger question in the matchup will revolve around the Japanese ace’s control. If Dice-K locates multiple pitches and throws first-pitch strikes, the Sox will likely be in good shape. If he doesn’t, it could get to be a long night at the Fens (see below).
Then again, the same can be said for Escobar, and getting to the front end of the Angels pen would definitely be an advantage for Boston. Will they get there? That’s very much to be determined. But if they can be patient and force Escobar into the zone, just as they did with Jon Lackey again Wednesday, they’ll be in very good shape.
Naturally, being in good shape tonight could decide what kind of shape the Sox come out of in the series. Or what shape they stay home in.
When he’s on, hitting his spots and grooving multiple pitches around the plate, Daisuke Matsuzaka can be one of the best pitchers in baseball, a man worth the massive $103 million contract that brought him over from Japan in the offseason. When he’s off, he can look like a minor leaguer still unable to hold his composure in prime time.
His arrival was much hyped, and some of his performances have lived up to the attention. But the real question is whether Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first playoff outing tonight will meet the $103 million demands.
The question of which Dice-K will show up tonight has to have some Sox fans shuddering. They have good reason to.
But while determining which Matsuzaka will make an appearance for Game 2 at Fenway Park might seem a total crap shoot, it’s actually more predictable than it might seem. Quite frankly, fans should know within the first couple of innings if Dice-K is on top of his game. Maybe much earlier than that.
In fact, they might be able to tell within the first 10 pitches.
That’s because Dice-K has been at his best, the pitcher he was expected to be when brought from the Land of the Rising Son, when he’s locating more than one pitch. And regardless of which pitch it is, the most important one he needs to land is strike one.
Just look at the data. In one of Matsuzaka’s most dominant starts, his career opening victory in Kansas City, the Dice-man drilled in first-pitch strikes to 19 of 26 batters. In a game against Cleveland he was masterful through five innings, tossing first-pitch strikes to 13 batters while mystifying the Tribe.
What happened after that? He melted down, giving up four runs in the sixth in a loss to Paul Byrd.
Those bugaboo innings have cost Matsuzaka dearly all year, perhaps taking as many as five wins away from his season total. But he’s appeared more consistent later in games over his final three appearances of the regular season, capped off with a masterful eight-inning win against Minnesota last Saturday.
So which Dice-K shows up tonight? If he locates his pitches early, it will almost certainly be the dominant Dice-Man, the pitcher who has looked like the man Boston fans expected to see when rumors of their massive $51.11111 million posting fee leaked last December.
And what if he doesn’t? Well, then the Sox are probably in for a long evening, with Dice-K’s well documented struggles to maintain his consistent placement once runners get on base (let alone with bothering gnats like the Angels runners on the basepaths).
But at least now Sox fans know what to expect, and what will make a difference. Perhaps most significantly, they’ll know what they’re getting from Dice-K, and they’ll probably know it early.
That’s right LA of Anaheim of Orange County of California of you get the damn idea. That’s right, Josh Beckett is out to get you. In his Texan dialect, he done hunted your ass down once now. He’s got the scent, and if he has to again, he’ll shoot Jon Lackey right between the eyes.
Ahh, screw it Josh. Go get some. Sox fans won’t judge, you deserve it.
Or many he can leave that to Big Papi and Kevin Youkilis. They certainly did a suitable job of that last night.
But the story, not shockingly, was Beckett’s dominance. At one point he mowed down 19 straight. Nineteen! It’s almost preposterous. And not only did Beckett’s dominance thoroughly frustrate the entire Angels lineup - OK, Vlad the Impaler got a hold of two different pitches that looked impossible to hit and stroked them for singles, but he is Vlad the Impaler - it also saved the Sox bullpen, which can now lineup Hideki Okajima on nearly a full week of rest, not to mention the Irish jigger himself, Jonathan Papelbon.
So, what can you give the guy who just nearly duplicated his epic postseason performance of 2003? What do you give the man who is now riding an 18-inning scoreless streak? Or, because this is The Morning After, who?
You give him the ultimate baseball blogger (seriously, how the hell did she earn that title so fast?), the woman who finally gave up her attempt to sleep through the LA Dodgers rotation (the whole lot of which combined doesn’t have Beckett’s stuff): Alyssa Milano.
Wait, he’s already been there, in 2003? Well, who the hell cares? Alyssa Milano’s still hot. Smoking hot. And Josh Beckett is still nasty. Filthy nasty.
Charmed may have been one of the worst shows of all-time. But it did give birth to this scene, so I think we’re going to call it even.
So we’re hooking it up again. Joshie deserves it after last night. And just think of the possibilities. The last time he was with Ms. Milano, Josh Beckett was sizing up his first World Series ring. Too bad it had an ugly fish on it.
Maybe this time he can get another one, one that might even be a bit prettier. If he gets help from Dice-K tomorrow and Curt Schilling Sunday, he’ll be well on his way.
Let’s get the engines revving folks, the playoffs are officially on.
Tonight, well, this evening? Or should we just call it this supper-time? Whatever. Red Sox fans get to watch a potential Cy Young winner head to the mound for Boston, facing off against a legitimate ace from the left coast. Here, as always, is your Baseball-Reference preview.
Josh Beckett goes back to the mound in the playoffs for the first time since 2003. Think he’s excited to be back on the big stage? It won’t take long to find out.
That, of course, is where the home field Fenway factor kicks in. Because unlike Josh Beckett, who’s been outstanding at home all year (we’re forgetting about that last throw-in start against the Twins), Jon Lackey’s starts in Boston have been an unabetted disaster.
The question becomes one of big game performance, and whether Lackey can put aside those frustrations in the heat of the moment. Beckett certainly has in the past - see 2003, Yankees - but Lackey is a bit less battle-proven.
That doesn’t mean he won’t right his personal pitching ship in the Fens tonight. It just means that Boston’s fans could become a factor, which is exactly what Terry Francona, Theo Epstein and the rest of the Red Sox organization had to be hoping for in gaining home field advantage with the league’s best record in the season’s closing days.
For his part, Beckett certainly seems to be focused. He claims to be patterning his postseason routine after Curt Schilling’s circa 2001 and 2004. He knows how much each batter makes a difference from his own experience in 2003, and he’s had to wait three years to get back near the stage he was on then in Florida.
Now that he has the stage, with the three-ring circus that is a postseason Fenway atmosphere circling around him, will Beckett turn up the heat as he has in the past?
We’re about to find out. Buckle up folks, what Sox fans hope will be a long ride starts. Now.
