We’ve seen this once before, a completely Red Sox-crazed country, with all of New England doing backflips to pay homage to the city and team that brought it joy.
Wait, this guy is our closer!?! God help us, he’s just impossible not to love, isn’t he?
Well, strap yourself in folks, here we go again:
- The highlight of the recent Sox madness, appropriately enough, was the Rolling Rally through the city. The fans and signs were all pretty terrific, complete with the K-Men and mobile Papelbon, and Jonathan Papelbon certainly didn’t disappoint, dancing three separate times along the route, including a kilted jig at City Hall Plaza where he roped in bullpen mates Hideki Okajima and Mike Timlin. Oh, and he got to dance to his entry song, “Shipping off to Boston” live from the Dropkick Murphys. Not a bad way to go, eh?
- In terms of preposterous trends in naming, the Franklin Park Zoo clearly has set the trend. After 2004, there was a rush on the name “Boston” for everything from hamsters to children. Well, a baby giraffe born during Game 1 of the Series at Zoo New England has been named Sox. Yes, Sox. No correct spelling needed folks. Thanks to Red Sox Monster for catching this one early, but it’s a pretty terrific trend. So, if you meet some poor alcoholic named Sox 35 years from now outside of Copley at 2:30 on a Wednesday morning, you’ll know how it happened.
- Among a host of ridiculous videos posted, Eric Wilbur may have found the best one on his NESN and Globe-connected Boston Sports Blog, a Mario Bros. themed and customized clip, fully pixellated, that shows the Rockies’ run through the playoffs, right up until they get squashed by good ol’ King Kooba, who’s a fully decked out Red Sox fan. Terrific stuff.
Everyone, meet Sox. Sox, meet everyone. And yes his name really is Sox.
- Of course, we’re also in for a panoply of Sox appearances on late night shows, too. Jonathan Papelbon, likely to be the biggest hoot of the bunch, is on tonight’s “Late Show with David Letterman”. We’d be shocked if he’s not jigging at some point. Shockingly, not only is Manny Ramirez talking to the media in the playoffs, he’s going to talk to America on a late night show, getting full interview treatment on “The Tonight Show” with Jay Leno on Friday. No word on whether he realizes that appearance will require a flight to LA. An, just to round things out, the ever-affable David Ortiz will represent Big Papi style on Conan O’Brien’s “Late Night with Conan O’Brien”. The pure weirdness of Papelbon and Letterman in the same room makes for almost surefire hilarity, but we wouldn’t be surprised if Big Papi and O’Brien actually end up being funnier. The comedic potential of all these appearances, of course, is pretty much uncharted. Lots of good TV watching in the nights to come.
Naturally, we’re sure there’ll be much more attention, craziness and Sox-based debauchery in the coming days, and we’ll keep you updated on it all.
Over the course of the year, Curt Schilling made it perfectly clear that if the Red Sox didn’t extend him, he’d test the free agency waters. So, it seemed a bit - how should we say … pushy - that he’d officially file his papers the morning of Boston’s World Series parade through the city.
Schilling has thrown a lot of good things Boston’s way, but he’ll need to see some good things tossed his if he’s going to stay.
Don’t get us wrong, Schill was definitely soaking it all in Tuesday, videotaping the parade while kicking back in a “We Did it Again” shirt on a duck boat. He was a prominent part of the promenade, and made no bones about the fact that he was thoroughly enjoying himself.
Still, doesn’t such a quick move, when he had plenty of time to file the papers, seem like a bit of a “F-you” to GM Theo Epstein? And why, exactly, if Curt wants to stay in Boston so badly, would that be a good move?
We’re puzzled by it. In his weekly Tuesday morning spot on WEEI, Schilling was gracious and made it clear that a return to the Sox would be by far his top choice. Still, he also made it clear that, “It’s entirely possible that I’ve played my last game for this team.”
On his 38pitches blog, Schill has already enumerated a list of teams he and his family would approve of signing with. Naturally, as he’s committed to throughout the season, there’s no Yankees on the list, but there seem to already be classes of teams forming in his mind. Perhaps subconsciously, Schilling lists the first 5 teams (Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim, New York Mets, Philadelphia) alphabetically, then does the same with a second flight before tacking Milwaukee on to the end (guess he doesn’t want to pitch for the Brewers, huh?).
Considering the fact that he’s just looking for a one-year deal, it’ll be interesting to see which of those teams bite. Clearly, the Indians and Tigers are only a pitcher away. If that. Schilling could walk into either clubhouse and be slotted as the No. 3 starter right away, with the offensive production behind him to make a huge difference. The same can be said about the Angels, though to a lesser-degree. Anaheim clearly needs more offensive pop, but Schilling has always pitched like dynamite there, so it wouldn’t be shocking if they made a run at him.
The Mets and Phillies are perhaps the most intriguing clubs among the top list. Both would require a move back to the NL, but that would make Schilling that much better. It’s possible that he might get another four, five extra wins out of such a move, assuming he stays healthy. And, naturally, a move to the Mets would fill in the gap left there by Tom Glavine, while also reuniting Schilling with Pedro Martinez, and tension in the process.
That’s where things get truly intriguing. It’s possible that the Mets or Phillies (who could REALLY use a Schilling return) would be willing to throw $12-13 mill at the Big Schill, the number he was searching for in the preseason. There’s no way Epstein is going to match that. But what if Epstein offers Schilling $8 million? Would he be willing to take the $4 million pay cut to stay in Boston and finish his career with a “B” on his hat? It’s hard to tell. Only Schilling truly knows the answer to that question, and he’s not telling anyone.
One thing seems almost certain: The Red Sox will offer Curt something. And at least a couple of other teams will offer him something, too. Probably more than Boston will. That’s where rubber will meet the road, and we’ll find out if Schilling meets the road, too, based on his decision.
We’re at that point in the season, the one where a single win ends it all, makes the difference between glory and purgatory, ultimate merit or the sudden mediocrity afforded to teams sent back to the pack to wait for 2008.
Let the record show that in each of the last six times such a game has presented itself, from Game 5 of the ALCS on, the Red Sox have come out on top. But perhaps because of their precarious start in the championship series, they may understand better than any other team that they can’t allow a dangerous Colorado team off the mat in Coors Field tonight.
Boston is on the verge of an incredibly special accomplishment, a second title in four years, moving into the elite air of the Yankees as the only organization to earn multiple titles in such close proximity over the past decade plus. Some writers are already saying they are on the verge of supplanting the Yankees as the AL East’s dominant power, likely a bit premature at the moment, yet still an evolving and intriguing possibility.
What’s equally significant is that Boston could win a second title and keep so much of the identity it forged in 2004, when it mounted the most miraculous comeback in sports history to steal the World Series from the Yankees and, shortly thereafter, the Cardinals. Their backs were firmly against the wall, with breaks falling to the Indians left and right, and yet they rallied, won, then won at home to send Cleveland back to Lake Erie.
A new generation of Sox players has found itself tested in the playoff crucible alongside David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, long the team’s most reliable options. Again, this supporting cast has proven dangerous and effective and - in the case of newcomers Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury - lethally efficient.
Into this spotlight dances a young, enigmatic starter with a chance to close what his forebears have started. When Jon Lester, he of wins and no decisions across 17 straight starts, takes the hill tonight with a chance to come full circle, from a cancer diagnosis just more than a year ago to a World Series start and, he hopes, a title. They’re that close. One good performance away. Lester got rid of jitters in Game 2 of the ALCS and rebounded to pitch admirably in Game 4 of that slate. Of course, the fact that he’s pitching at all is admirable, but he won’t hear any of it.
Instead, he wants to focus on his start. In fact, that’s all any of the Red Sox will say at the moment. They want to keep focused. They’ll need to. The last team that lost a bit of that, whether you feel it was the 2004 Yankees or 2007 Indians, never reached the finish line they could see so clearly.
This team can see it ahead, it’s just a long, strong game away. Still.
When Daisuke Matsuzaka takes the mound at Coors Field tonight, he will have answered questions about his guts and guile once in the postseason already. Still, his first response - a resoundingly solid, if not spectacular, five-inning outing against the Indians in Game 7 of the ALCS - was enough to quiet alarms that he had crumbled under the expectations of a monstrous salary and posting fee. But it wasn’t enough to answer all questions about whether he truly is a big game pitcher, at least in the major leagues.
It’s chilly in Colorado, but Daisuke Matsuzaka will have a chance to make a lot of his detractors warm to his performance and potential.
That, after all, was the primary reason the Red Sox splurged on his services over the winter. Matsuzaka filled a pressing need: a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, and he did so with immeasurable flair and panache. For the tidy sum of $103 million, the Sox expected to add a shutdown starter who possessed five, arguably six, pitches and a resume chock full of victories in notable international contests, let alone his historic high school exploits.
Through the first half of the season, it looked like Boston was on the winner’s side of that bargain. Dice-K keep batters mixed up and miffed, mowing down hitters at the second-fastest clip in the American League while working around problematic innings of walks and timely hits to rack up 12 wins. He easily could have had 15, if not for matchups against opposing aces on their best, like Seattle’s Felix Hernandez.
The second half was far different, making Matsuzaka’s former Japanese squad, Seibu, look like thieves of Sox owner John Henry’s money. Dice-K struggled, then fell into pits of awful pitching. He was shellacked by the lowly Baltimore Orioles. He looked like he was done, his fastball losing velocity and location.
Then, after a few extra days of rest, he bounced back. It was Matsuzaka’s night on the mound when the Sox clinched the AL East. A week later, he had a solid, if brief, outing against the Angels that set the tone for a 2-0 series lead in the ALDS. Then, in the aftermath of severe disappointment in ALCS Game 3, he bounced back for five innings and the all important win in Game 7, setting the stage for his start tonight.
It’s almost impossible to predict which Matsuzaka will show up tonight in Colorado. It could be the dominant ace from overseas, the one who commands five or six pitches and isn’t afraid to use any of them in any count. It could be the meek, shell-shocked Dice-K of the second half, waiting to duck to avoid a line drive in between pitches.
Or it could be the pitcher on the mound in Game 7, an amalgamation of the two, occasionally dominant, occasionally struggling, but always mustering enough moxie to get a big out. If that’s the guy who shows up, Boston should be in good shape.
Like the ALDS and ALCS, we jumped on board with Red Sox Monster to be part of a Red Sox World Series roundtable, joining Red Sox Monster publisher Dan Lamothe (who kept his picks separate in a private podcast) and Red Sox Stats’ Guy’sMike Colluci.
Without further ado, here’s the the full roundtable piece on the Monster, with my direct answers below as always.
1. One of the appealing things about the World Series is that teams that rarely meet get the chance to go head-to-head. Break things down for me, will you? Where do the Sox have advantages in your eyes, and conversely, where can the Rockies exploit the Sox?
The relative anonymity of players on opposing teams is always part of the novelty that makes the World Series so fascinating. Still, with the advent of interleague play, that’s been mitigated some, never more so than this year, when the Sox and Rockies actually DID play each other back in June. We all know how that turned out (Rockies took 2 of 3 … in Fenway), and that series kind of started both the Red Sox’ and Rockies’ long string of regular season mediocrity.
Still, what we saw in that series is only slightly relevant to the World Series. Consider the fact that Boston has different spots throughout the lineup (Youk was still bouncing around and Pedroia hadn’t moved to leadoff yet, let alone Ellsbury), while Troy Tulowitzki was still struggling with expectations and half the Rockies rotation was still being groomed in the minor leagues.
So, if we look at this World Series with a new slate, it seems to shake down like this: 1) The Red Sox lineup looks more formidable, particularly coming off an overall pasting of Cleveland for three straight games. 2) The Red Sox bullpen is more battle tested. Colorado got by in the NLDS and NLCS with long outings from their starters before the entrance of the wet-shirted Manny Corpas (check YouTube for that terrific splash before his entrance in Game 1 against Philly). But the Sox lineup is likely to be a lot more patient than either Philly’s or Arizona’s. 3) Josh Beckett looks like a significant upgrade over Jeff Francis in Game 1 (or over anyone else, for that matter), but after that the pitching looks almost like a push.
2. Obviously, one of the first things that will come up in any preview of this series is the way the Rockies exploded against Boston in June, taking the last two games in a three game series with a combined score of 19-3. Is there anything we should be alarmed about those losses, especially since Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling lost them? Or should they be considered isolated incidents?
As stated above, they seem more like isolated incidents. Certainly the Beckett start shouldn’t be too concerning. Schilling’s is more frustrating. With his penchant for dropping gopher balls in that loss, there’s no telling if Colorado could do the same thing again. Meanwhile, the lone Boston winner from that series - Tim Wakefield - isn’t even on the roster. Go figure, and call it a scratch.
3. Talk about the Rockies lineup a little bit, if you would. What strategy should Boston be using to deal with it? Who scares you in that lineup, other than the obvious answer (Matt Holliday’s regular season: .340, 36 HR, 137 RBI, SLG .607)?
Todd Helton is still terrifying, and if you have any doubts about it, check out his power numbers, particularly slugging to left field. Meanwhile, there’s good speed at the top of the order (see Taveras and Matsui) and Tulowitzki has been an absolute terror in the second half. That, of course, doesn’t even take Adkins into account, so there’s enough fear to go around. The leadoff tandem of Taveras and Matsui alone is enough reason to be happy Wakefield isn’t starting a game in the series (his ERA at Coors Field is another compelling one, but hey, we’ll stick with the speed).
4. Put yourself in Terry Francona’s shoes for a minute. How do you handle losing the designated hitter position during Game 3-5? Who should sit? Also, who do you think will sit?
This is perhaps the most brutal decision Francona has to make. Clearly, you can’t take Ortiz out of the lineup in the playoffs. Ever (unless you have a lead in the eighth or ninth inning, and you take him out for a defensive replacement). That leaves Youkilis and Lowell to platoon at third. Youkilis is on such a tear that it hurts to take him out of the lineup, but Lowell has better power, more RBI on the year and more experience at Coors Field. Put those two factors together, and it all seems to even out, doesn’t it? So, if we were Francona, we’d play the hot hand. If Youk is still batting .500, you’re not taking the man out of the lineup. If Lowell hits a homer and three doubles in Games 1 and 2, he’s your man. Now, here’s the real X-factor: What about Youk in right field? He played there down the stretch last year, and clearly you’d rather have Youk in the lineup than JD Drew, all recent heroics and solid hitting aside. Now, I don’t think Francona’s drastic enough to actually make that move, but it’s worth pointing out nonetheless.
That being said, it says here that Francona plays Lowell in Game 3, then checks his career numbers against Cook before deciding for Game 4. If they’re good, Mikey goes again. If they’re not, Youk comes in. And Papi stays in throughout, without question.
5. Alright, one last time: prediction time. Who ya got? It should be noted that no one has picked against the Sox in one of these roundtable discussions yet…. which means no one has been wrong yet, either.
Let it be known that it is EXTREMELY hard to pick against the Rockies the way they’ve been playing. They’re so hot it feels like they could melt right through the Colorado snow. And right now, everything manager Clint Hurdle touches seems to turn to gold. That being said, moving Aaron Cook into the starting rotation for Game 4 seems like a true twist and gamble. Why shake up the rotation now, when you’ve been rolling? Meanwhile, Terry Francona’s willingness to leave Wakefield off the roster, likely in favor of second-year rookie Jon Lester, should be applauded. It’s hard to leave a veteran and heart-and-soul guy like Wakefield off, but it’s clearly the right move with his health and track record.
Why am I prattling on this way? Because I think the series is so close that it could swing on two small decisions like that (conversely, who Francona plays at third in Games 3 and 4 could have the same affect). Game 1 is a must-win for the Sox, and - like the ALCS - I really think Game 2 is the key. If Boston wins the first two, they’re going to win this series. If they split, it could be trouble.
So what’s going to happen? Uggghhh, this one is brutal to predict. That being said, I’m going Sox. In six. Schilling closes it out. I think Beckett will win Games 1 and Game 5 in Colorado setting the stage. But like the ALCS, I wouldn’t be even slightly surprised if the Rockies walked off with this one, even though Boston clearly has a more balanced and complete team, with the regular season record as ample evidence.
I’m perfect in the playoffs so far, so here’s hoping that continues for one more round. Otherwise we’re in for some painful postmortem. Here’s hopin’.
For all intents and purposes, Boston’s season is on the line tonight.
Terry Francona got to choose between starting the man on the left and the man in the middle. He went left. Surprised? We are.
The Red Sox stand on the precipice of a 3-1 deficit in the ALCS, a chasm so large it would seem all but impossible to breach, particularly considering the fact that only one of Boston’s three vaunted starters actually won their outing against Cleveland.
The Indians are rolling. They got a win from the ultra-iffy Jake Westbrook last night, for God sakes, and they have one of the most consistent elder hurlers in the game on the mound tonight, with Paul Byrd scheduled to fire in plenty of strikes, most of which probably won’t be followed by balls.
The man charged with stemming that tide, with holding back the floodgates from a potential Cleveland run away is Boston’s own elder statesman, a man who once seemed ticketed for the best season of his career after turning 40. Tim Wakefield, knuckleballer extrordinaire will get the ball on the mound tonight for the Red Sox, and with him ride the hopes of saving a legitimate shot for another World Series at Fenway Park.
If you’re a Sox fan and that doesn’t make you incredibly nervous, you should check your pulse. While Wakefield started the season on a bullet train, he finished on a vehicle moving at the speed of a Big Wheel … when it wasn’t stopped by injury. He was never the same after a back injury sidelined him for two weeks, and was thoroughly rocked his last three times out on the hill.
All of which is to say that Boston better have Jon Lester at the ready if Wake devolves come inning 3. Which wouldn’t exactly be a huge surprise.
Of course, it doesn’t have to be this way. Josh Beckett, who dominated the Tribe in Game 1 while throwing only 85 pitches, could come back and pitch tonight on three days’ rest. If memory serves, that’s exactly what he did when beating the Yankees in Game 6 of the 2003 World Series en route to earning the Florida ring he and Mike Lowell both wear around Boston, earning the Series MVP trophy in the process.
So why, it begs to reason, isn’t Joshie heading back to the bump tonight? That is a very good question. Terry Francona ruled out the possibility repeatedly over the course of the last four days leading up to the faceoff. He said even down 2-1, he wouldn’t hesitate to send Wakefield to the mound.
There’s a pretty good reason for that. Even if Beckett pitched tonight and earned the win, Boston would still have to find a way to get two more wins, conceivably one from Beckett on full rest in a Game 7 and then another from either Curt Schilling or Daisuke Matsuzaka in Game 5 or 6. While that’s eminently possible, pitching Beckett three times over the course of a seven-game series would put a huge strain on him and might affect his performance in a World Series, if they got there.
Of course, as it stands now that seems a tall task. Who knows if Boston will be able to put together a rally and get past a Cleveland team that looks like it’s closer and closer to peaking every day, with a virile crowd pushing it on.
And if there’s not a World Series, what’s the use in saving your ace for one? It doesn’t make much sense to us, but be sure the Colorado Rockies are sitting back and taking notice. After all, they took care of business, so now they’ve got nothing better to do.
For the second straight playoff round, Red Sox Monster has set up a pretty strong blogger roundtable surveying Boston’s prospects for the round ahead. We were part of the group again hosted by Red Sox Monster and MassLive’s inimitable Dan Lamothe, so we thought we’d share our answers in preview of tonight’s Sox-Indians series starter. For those interested in the full roundtable answers, which also included bloggers from Red Sox Stat Guy, Sox & Dawgs and The Joy of Sox and Texas Gal of Babes Love Baseball. Definitely a good anticipatory read. Here’s the entire piece for your perusal: Red Sox Monster Roundtable
And while we may not have hit the mark as squarely on some questions as our friends in the blogosphere, here’s our distilled question-by-question answers for your perusal. Interested to see what everyone thinks.
1) One of the big things we all have been hearing this week is that the Indians have an advantage because of Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia. Last time I checked, though, the Red Sox beat Sabathia in a nail-biter once already this year and won five out of seven against the Tribe. How does Beckett-Schilling vs. Sabathia-Carmona play out for the two teams?
This, clearly, is the duel duels of the playoffs, if you will. I like Beckett over Sabathia because of both home field advantage and the performance of both pitchers in Game 1 of their respective ALDS’s. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen Beckett more in control than he was in Game 1 against the Angels, and Sabathia looked nervous throughout his team’s win. That being said, it’s possible that moving away from the Jacob’s Field crowd will help C.C. We’ll have to see.
As for Schilling-Carmona, Game 2 scares me significantly more. Carmona already has one win over the Sox, a terrific 1-0 outdueling of Beckett, and while Fenway Park was a house of horrors for him last year there’s no indication it will be in the playoffs. His slider was falling off the table in the ALDS, and outside of Beckett, he may have looked better than every other pitcher in baseball in Round One. Meanwhile, Schilling starting in Fenway again scares me a bit. He’s been more prone to home runs at home, and while Francona is likely to show a much quicker hook in the ALCS than during the regular season, there’s still the possibility of a suddenly big inning out there. So, I’m going to predict a split in Games 1 and 2, though a Schilling gem and 2-0 Sox lead wouldn’t completely shock me, just surprise me.
2) What about Games 3 and 4? How worried should Sox fans be about Matsuzaka-Wakefield/Lester? Also, should Sox fans be licking their chops when they see Jake Westbrook on the mound, or were his regular season stats against Boston (10 hits and five earned runs in six innings) a fluke?
Lost amidst all the talk about moving Schilling into the 2 slot was that it means Dice-K will start Game 3 in Cleveland. And perhaps lost in the analysis of that is just how impressive the Dice man was at Jacob’s Field earlier this year. He pitched a complete game win, out doing C.C. Sabathia, and helping the Sox win the season series. Clearly, that was a huge win in retrospect. Meanwhile, there’s no reason to doubt Westbrook’s stats against the Sox, particularly in the aftermath of another dismal performance in the ALDS, when the Yankees cleaned his clock. On paper, it looks like a very good matchup for the Sox.
Game 4, understandably, is much more troubling. Wakefield has looked absolutely cooked after his most recent back injury, and there’s concern over just how healthy he may be. If Wake isn’t comfortable, his knuckleball won’t move right and he’ll get clobbered. Meanwhile, Byrd is a wily veteran who doesn’t walk batters, gets tough outs and sent the Yankees to the golf course. I’m getting a headache just thinking about this match up, so let’s move to the next question.
3) When analysts talk about Boston’s strengths this year, the deep bullpen always comes up. Cleveland’s wasn’t bad, though, finishing with the sixth best ERA (3.75) in the Majors. How important is getting to the Indians bullpen, and where do potential advantages for the Red Sox lay?
Getting to the bullpen is actually only an advantage against Sabathia and Carmona, because that duo has been so nasty. The two Rafaels have been almost unhittable and seem to be surging in the postseason. And while the numbers aren’t kind to Joe Borowski, Sweaty Joe does keep getting results. Really, how Boston hits off the Indian relievers in Games 1 and 2 really may set a tone for the entire series. Get mowed down and the Tribe kids may get more confidence and roll from there. Knocking in a few late-inning runs early – particularly off the Rafaels - could be all but essential.
4) The Indians had six players hit between 18 and 25 home runs, but no one with more than that. They also had only one starter, Victor Martinez hit more than .300 (he hit .301). How should Boston pitch to the Cleveland lineup?
While there may not be too many stellar OPS guys, Cleveland’s lineup is much, MUCH more balanced than Boston’s. There’s not any easy outs. Martinez has been an absolute terror, Hafner seems to be peaking at just the right time and there’s youth abundant. I’m not sold on Asdrubal Cabrera, ALDS homer aside, and first baseman Ryan Garko is so streaky that the Sox may be able to handle him. Grady Sizemore wasn’t too impressive in Round One, but he scares me and I think could secretly be the key to the series. If he starts getting on to lead off games and innings – particularly against Dice-K and Wake – major problems could follow. It’s not a pretty picture. The other big problem looming? Kenny Lofton, the center fielder who just never goes away. He had his best postseason series in years against the Yanks and seems poised to cause more headaches in Fenway.
5) One Trot Nixon returns to the postseason on Friday, as well. He doesn’t play much anymore… will he have any impact on the series, and what kind?
Trot seems ticketed for one or two key pinch hitting spots, particularly in Fenway. Remember, the every day Indian in right is a rookie (Franklin Gutierrez) so a couple bad at bats in the friendly confines and Eric Wedge may flex his well-documented right to re-consider his lineup. After all, Trot does know how to lace a hot grounder down that first base line, doesn’t he?
6) Tell me something the common fan misses when discussing the series. Any surprises jump out at you when looking at the two teams and their statistics?
There’s an emerging perception that Papelbon is the big x-factor in this series because he’s more reliable than Borowski, but it strikes me that the much bigger factor is the teams’ respective middle relievers. Assuming Tito Francona goes with Okie Dokie in the 8th inning setup role again before Papelbon, that still leaves question marks in the sixth and seventh innings. Assuming Sox starters can get there, Manny Delcarmen seems to be the main go-to-guy for a sixth inning look. That leaves Mike Timlin and Eric Gagne – who gave up a meaningless run in Game 3 against the Angels – to fight out the seventh inning. Will Francona actually trust Gagne in a tight spot late, or will he take his chances with the 40 year-old jack of all trades Timlin? Will Timlin still be sharp after not pitching in a game in two weeks? Lester is clearly the long-man, but would the Sox use him if Dice-K falters? Lots of questions here, to be sure. Meanwhile, the Sox have to prove they can hit the Rafaels and Jensen Lewis. There’s absolutely no guarantee they can, and just ask the Yankees how easy it is. Put it all together and, despite all the attention being placed on Borowski, any late homers off him won’t matter unless Boston can hit the earlier guys.
Another fascinating plot line revolves around the tendency of Sox players who are former Indians to perform ridiculously well at Jacob’s Field. Just look at Coco’s number from the early season series. If Coco, Alex Cora in a pinch, Manny Ramirez, etc. come through, the series could swing on that alone.
7) So, who wins? Why?
I’m going with the Sox in 6 or 7. If you pinned me down I’d say seven, because I can’t imagine Schilling beating Carmona in a Game 6 at Jacob’s Field. Still, I think Boston will be able to pull out a couple of wins behind bashes from Ortiz and Ramirez, who finally looks dialed in for the first time this year. Additionally, I really am looking for big things from Coco Crisp, who was a monster in Cleveland earlier this year. Add strange statistical aberrations like Bobby Kielty’s success against C.C. Sabathia, and I think Boston will claw this one out. But it’ll be close, it’ll require a lot of TUMS and (not or) Pepto Bismol, and it will have Sox fans clamoring for NL opponents, which could end up biting Boston in the World Series (if Colorado wins the NLCS). Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
When he’s on, hitting his spots and grooving multiple pitches around the plate, Daisuke Matsuzaka can be one of the best pitchers in baseball, a man worth the massive $103 million contract that brought him over from Japan in the offseason. When he’s off, he can look like a minor leaguer still unable to hold his composure in prime time.
His arrival was much hyped, and some of his performances have lived up to the attention. But the real question is whether Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first playoff outing tonight will meet the $103 million demands.
The question of which Dice-K will show up tonight has to have some Sox fans shuddering. They have good reason to.
But while determining which Matsuzaka will make an appearance for Game 2 at Fenway Park might seem a total crap shoot, it’s actually more predictable than it might seem. Quite frankly, fans should know within the first couple of innings if Dice-K is on top of his game. Maybe much earlier than that.
In fact, they might be able to tell within the first 10 pitches.
That’s because Dice-K has been at his best, the pitcher he was expected to be when brought from the Land of the Rising Son, when he’s locating more than one pitch. And regardless of which pitch it is, the most important one he needs to land is strike one.
Just look at the data. In one of Matsuzaka’s most dominant starts, his career opening victory in Kansas City, the Dice-man drilled in first-pitch strikes to 19 of 26 batters. In a game against Cleveland he was masterful through five innings, tossing first-pitch strikes to 13 batters while mystifying the Tribe.
What happened after that? He melted down, giving up four runs in the sixth in a loss to Paul Byrd.
Those bugaboo innings have cost Matsuzaka dearly all year, perhaps taking as many as five wins away from his season total. But he’s appeared more consistent later in games over his final three appearances of the regular season, capped off with a masterful eight-inning win against Minnesota last Saturday.
So which Dice-K shows up tonight? If he locates his pitches early, it will almost certainly be the dominant Dice-Man, the pitcher who has looked like the man Boston fans expected to see when rumors of their massive $51.11111 million posting fee leaked last December.
And what if he doesn’t? Well, then the Sox are probably in for a long evening, with Dice-K’s well documented struggles to maintain his consistent placement once runners get on base (let alone with bothering gnats like the Angels runners on the basepaths).
But at least now Sox fans know what to expect, and what will make a difference. Perhaps most significantly, they’ll know what they’re getting from Dice-K, and they’ll probably know it early.
We were recently part of a blog roundtable hosted by Red Sox Monster and MassLive’s inimitable Dan Lamothe, so we thought we’d share our answers in preview of tonight’s Sox-Angels lid lifter. For those interested in the full roundtable answers, which also included bloggers from Red Sox Stat Guy, Sox & Dawgs and The Joy of Sox, here’s the spot for all your answers. Definitely a good anticipatory read.
And while we may not have hit the mark as squarely on some questions as our friends in the blogosphere, here’s our distilled question-by-question answers for your perusal. Interested to see what everyone thinks.
Isn’t it amazing how there are almost no questions about Mike Lowell heading into the playoffs? That’s how ridiculously reliable Dr. Double has been. It’s uncanny.
1) OK, let’s start with some basics. Since they clinched home field advantage in the playoffs, the Red Sox had the choice on what kind of schedule they wanted to play. They opted for “B,” which could extend the series to eight days, rather than seven. Good or bad for the Sox, considering the state of affairs for the two pitching staffs?
This seems like an obvious boost for the Sox, since it allows them to use both Josh “Don’t F@%$ with me” Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka twice. Now, a week ago, that previous sentence probably would have included using Beckett and Curt Schilling twice, but Terry Francona’s already decided to stick his neck out there before the playoffs even begin, opting for two potential Dice-K starts rather than two of the man who has enough nicknames to form a band himself: Mr. Ankle and his “Pay Me” Chorus! Still, while that might seem like a shaky move, Sox fans have to remember that Matsuzaka-san’s big-game dominance in the World Baseball Classic and throughout his Japanese career were two of the biggest reasons they were willing to shell out the GDP of a Central American nation to sign him. So what the hell, let’s roll with the Dice-Man.
OF course, if the Sox were playing the Angels, the schedule would mean two shots for both C.C. Sabathia and the operatic Fausto Carmona, which would be a VERY bad thing (good luck New York! Not!). But with the Angels, it means Jon Lackey at Fenway, where he’s been ROCKED (0-2, 8.38 ERA at the Fens) and Kelvim “Don’t Call me Kelvin” Escobar. That’s a much more palatable double dip, wouldn’t you say.
Then there’s the bullpen factor. While Hideki Okajima looked great against Minnesota over the weekend, there are bound to be some lingering concerns about the health of his arm. Having an extra day of rest between the first three games on helps things from a set-up angle.
2) The Red Sox went 6-4 against the Angels this season, but that includes a three-game sweep in April, when the Angels were struggling with injuries. How afraid should Red Sox fans be of the Angels? Would they have been better off drawing Cleveland in the first round?
The answer to the second part of this question, quite frankly, is a resounding NO! The Indians are straight up terrifying, and while the Halos can cause a lot of headaches on the basepaths, they’re incredibly over reliant on three guys for their power numbers: 1) Vlad Guerrero, who may have hurt his hand in the season’s final series, 2) Gary Matthews Jr., who DEFINITELY hurt his knee in the final series, and 3) old Boston favorite Orlando Cabrera, who has been dinged up a good portion of the season. If Boston’s pitchers can keep the O-Cab and gnats like Chone Figgins off the basepaths, there shouldn’t be too much to worry about. Certainly, the pitching seems like a distinct Boston advantage (again, see above), which wouldn’t be the case against the Tribe. We’ll see if that shakes out later, but let’s note get ahead of ourselves. Or the Red Sox.
3) Josh Beckett has been reliable throughout the season. For a second, though, let’s say he loses Game 1. Does anything change for the Sox?
Nope. If Joshie gets rocked, then Joshie gets rocked. One would hope he can find a way to avoid the kind of meltdown he had against Minny at the Fens the other day, but you never know. Down 0-1, Game 2 obviously becomes a virtual must win, but isn’t that when you want Dice-K on the mound? And any questions about his ability to come through in big games should be somewhat quelled by his performance in his last three regular season starts, which ranged from admirable to downright dominant. Ask Minnesota.
4) The Angels clinched the American League West on Sept. 23, then rested their regulars a fair amount of the time thereafter. It’s an age-old question, but advantage or disadvantage?
Neither, because while it might have helped, when Mike Sciosca played his starters they kept getting hurt! It’s remarkable. While it would have seemed like a nice refreshing bounce going into the playoffs, now LA has a handful of questions about Jr. Matthews, Vlad the Impaler, etc. (see above). So much for the rest, huh?
5) Tell us something that’s not common knowledge about this matchup. Anything the common fan has not noticed, do you think?
There’s so much talk about how the Angels run right at teams, about how they’re terror on the basebaths, you fill in your own baseball cliche here, basically. But as much as the Halos could present problems, some of that is mitigated by Tim Wakefield being left off the roster, which helps both in keeping them from running on him and also keeping Varitek as the arm behind the plate. Conversely, the Sox could be in an interesting position to turn the “run-happy” table on LA of Anaheim of Orange County of California of you get the idea. If Tito stacks the bottom of the lineup with two of Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo and Jacoby Ellsbury, you can bet those guys will be galloping trying to create runs. Ellsbury in particular could have a huge impact on the series. It’ll be fascinating to see how Tito works him into lineups and, failing that, into games as a super-sub. As good as J.D. Drew has been the last couple weeks, Ellsbury has been a revelation at the plate and on the base paths. It’s almost impossible to imagine he’s not going to get serious run, whether he’s filling in for Drew or Crisp. We do know he won’t be filling in for Manny, barring an injury. In fact, let’s not even imagine that possibility. Just forget I just wrote that. I’ll go singe the hair off my left forearm as pennance, so don’t worry, we’re all good.
As for the Angels, one HUGE dark horse to watch for is Casey Kotchman. We really can’t figure out why for the life of us, but the guy just gets Boston pitching. He hit a remarkable .343 against the Sox this year, with a handful of those hits making a difference out in Anaheim. Yes Sox fans, this is your official cue to go start digging up personal dirt to scream at him at the plate tomorrow afternoon.
6) So, who will win? What separates these two teams in the end?
Pitching separates the two teams in the end, just as it always does in the playoffs. Naturally, the Sox will have to get to the Angels’ starters, because the LA pen is pretty damn solid, what with Justin Speier and Scott Shields setting up K-Rod. It mirrors the Sox pen (the GOOD version) remarkably well, all the way down to Shields having an off year (see Eric Gagne) and Speier making up for it (see Okaji-san).
Still, with Matthews and Guerrero’s gimpiness, and with Lackey’s regular season tribulations as Fenway hanging like an albatross across Game 1, it’s hard to image the Sox go to Anaheim down 0-2, and really that’s the one way the Angels would seem like prohibitive favorites to pull out the series.
That means I’m picking the Sox, in either 3 or 4. I don’t see this puppy going full like those epic Oakland and Cleveland Divisional slates of the late ’90s. With a gun to my head I’d say 4 games as a buffer for a mediocre start from either Dice-K or “Buy my house in Medfield!”, but I would not be shocked by a sweep. Here’s hoping, right?
We bring this to light because we certainly didn’t know until this AP piece about this afternoon’s playoff rally at City Hall Plaza.
OK, so this picture is from 2004, but can you imagine how distracting and deflating it might be if it happens again, well, right now at City Hall Plaza?
The answer, of course, is The Standells, who recorded the piece in 1966, not knowing that it would be played after each Red Sox win in perpetuity. We’re willing to make an educated guess, however, that they’re hoping it’ll be played another, oh, 6-11 times this year.
Still, the question is prompted by The Standells’ appearance at this afternoon’s rally, and it’s role in the larger development of the AL Divisional Series. Sure, The Standells may be a fine band, and we know that The Dropkick Murphys, also scheduled to perform, are excellent. Just listen to Jonathan Papelbon’s theme of choice as he warms up on the mound.
The larger question is whether they should be playing a pep rally for a divisional crown. Sure, a team always wants to win the division, and perhaps should even expect to. But it’s hard to justify a grandiose celebration when there’s still so much baseball to be played.
The Red Sox stated goal every year is to win the World Series. They’re a large market team, one of the few that have no budgetary constraints to justify not putting an excellent team on the field year after year. They have deep pocket owners and a front office which seems to have a strong sense of vision, both for present and future, behind wunderkind World Series architect Theo Epstein. So why should the city be surprised that they win the AL East, even if it is the first time in 12 years it’s happened?
The answer, of course, is that it shouldn’t. And perhaps Boston isn’t surprised, but is rather just jubilant about the team’s success. On top of that, we’re willing to sign up for any situation in which Papelbon might be around alcohol or a microphone and do or say something crazy. He’s reaching that point in character-dom.
But the whole rally does seem a bit forced, doesn’t it? Particularly on a day when the Patriots are facing off at a supposed AFC contender in Cincinnati for an event that legitimately matter. A lot.
You remember this scene, right? We’re hoping for another one, and may get one, so long as today’s little celebration isn’t more distraction than motivation.
Not that we’re condemning the Boston front office or even questioning its judgment in going along with the pre-playoff rally plan. OK, maybe we are questioning its judgment, but we’re not going to condemn it. Yet.
If the Sox go out and look distracted or deflated in games 1 and 2 at Fenway? Then we will definitely condemn it. Harshly. Just wanted to throw it out there.
