Before checking in on the weather forecast for tonight’s Game 4 in Cleveland …
A report that leaked through to ESPN Deportes claimed that Big Papi was considering sitting out a game of the ALCS to rest his injured knee, a balky, season-long hindrance that may have taken a renewed barking after he tried to stop on a dime to avoid being hit by a Manny Ramirez grounder last night in Cleveland. Instead of sitting out, Ortiz claimed that there was a zero percent chance of him missing any ALCS time. When asked by the Globe’s Amalie Benjamin about the injury, Ortiz said, “Unless I can’t get out of bed, I’ve got to keep on playing.”
As for getting out of bed, there remains a distinct possibility that, like last year’s NLCS between the Cardinals and Mets, tonight’s Game 4 could get bumped back a day because of rain. According to Steve Silva of boston.com, the chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3 p.m. in Cleveland has now turned to a statistical probability for thundershowers, with a 70 percent chance for rain after 3 p.m. and a thunderstorm probable.
That forecast, of course, would pave the way for Josh Beckett to pitch Game 4 tomorrow on regular rest, then return to pitch a potential Game 7 back at the Fens on regular rest again. Will it happen? That’s to be determined by the weather Gods and Terry Francona, the former of which has a reputation for being remarkably fickle, the latter a well-known stalwart.
Still, it seems all but impossible that Francona would pass up a chance to get two more Beckett starts under Boston’s belt on full rest in the series. Sure, this is Terry Francona and he is hopelessly devoted to Tim Wakefield, the scheduled starter for tonight’s tilt. But even with that, you can already see everyone penciling in Beckett for a Game 4 tomorrow if the rain keeps coming.
All there is to do now is wait on the rain to come. Or not.
For all intents and purposes, Boston’s season is on the line tonight.
Terry Francona got to choose between starting the man on the left and the man in the middle. He went left. Surprised? We are.
The Red Sox stand on the precipice of a 3-1 deficit in the ALCS, a chasm so large it would seem all but impossible to breach, particularly considering the fact that only one of Boston’s three vaunted starters actually won their outing against Cleveland.
The Indians are rolling. They got a win from the ultra-iffy Jake Westbrook last night, for God sakes, and they have one of the most consistent elder hurlers in the game on the mound tonight, with Paul Byrd scheduled to fire in plenty of strikes, most of which probably won’t be followed by balls.
The man charged with stemming that tide, with holding back the floodgates from a potential Cleveland run away is Boston’s own elder statesman, a man who once seemed ticketed for the best season of his career after turning 40. Tim Wakefield, knuckleballer extrordinaire will get the ball on the mound tonight for the Red Sox, and with him ride the hopes of saving a legitimate shot for another World Series at Fenway Park.
If you’re a Sox fan and that doesn’t make you incredibly nervous, you should check your pulse. While Wakefield started the season on a bullet train, he finished on a vehicle moving at the speed of a Big Wheel … when it wasn’t stopped by injury. He was never the same after a back injury sidelined him for two weeks, and was thoroughly rocked his last three times out on the hill.
All of which is to say that Boston better have Jon Lester at the ready if Wake devolves come inning 3. Which wouldn’t exactly be a huge surprise.
Of course, it doesn’t have to be this way. Josh Beckett, who dominated the Tribe in Game 1 while throwing only 85 pitches, could come back and pitch tonight on three days’ rest. If memory serves, that’s exactly what he did when beating the Yankees in Game 6 of the 2003 World Series en route to earning the Florida ring he and Mike Lowell both wear around Boston, earning the Series MVP trophy in the process.
So why, it begs to reason, isn’t Joshie heading back to the bump tonight? That is a very good question. Terry Francona ruled out the possibility repeatedly over the course of the last four days leading up to the faceoff. He said even down 2-1, he wouldn’t hesitate to send Wakefield to the mound.
There’s a pretty good reason for that. Even if Beckett pitched tonight and earned the win, Boston would still have to find a way to get two more wins, conceivably one from Beckett on full rest in a Game 7 and then another from either Curt Schilling or Daisuke Matsuzaka in Game 5 or 6. While that’s eminently possible, pitching Beckett three times over the course of a seven-game series would put a huge strain on him and might affect his performance in a World Series, if they got there.
Of course, as it stands now that seems a tall task. Who knows if Boston will be able to put together a rally and get past a Cleveland team that looks like it’s closer and closer to peaking every day, with a virile crowd pushing it on.
And if there’s not a World Series, what’s the use in saving your ace for one? It doesn’t make much sense to us, but be sure the Colorado Rockies are sitting back and taking notice. After all, they took care of business, so now they’ve got nothing better to do.
For the second straight playoff round, Red Sox Monster has set up a pretty strong blogger roundtable surveying Boston’s prospects for the round ahead. We were part of the group again hosted by Red Sox Monster and MassLive’s inimitable Dan Lamothe, so we thought we’d share our answers in preview of tonight’s Sox-Indians series starter. For those interested in the full roundtable answers, which also included bloggers from Red Sox Stat Guy, Sox & Dawgs and The Joy of Sox and Texas Gal of Babes Love Baseball. Definitely a good anticipatory read. Here’s the entire piece for your perusal: Red Sox Monster Roundtable
And while we may not have hit the mark as squarely on some questions as our friends in the blogosphere, here’s our distilled question-by-question answers for your perusal. Interested to see what everyone thinks.
1) One of the big things we all have been hearing this week is that the Indians have an advantage because of Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia. Last time I checked, though, the Red Sox beat Sabathia in a nail-biter once already this year and won five out of seven against the Tribe. How does Beckett-Schilling vs. Sabathia-Carmona play out for the two teams?
This, clearly, is the duel duels of the playoffs, if you will. I like Beckett over Sabathia because of both home field advantage and the performance of both pitchers in Game 1 of their respective ALDS’s. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen Beckett more in control than he was in Game 1 against the Angels, and Sabathia looked nervous throughout his team’s win. That being said, it’s possible that moving away from the Jacob’s Field crowd will help C.C. We’ll have to see.
As for Schilling-Carmona, Game 2 scares me significantly more. Carmona already has one win over the Sox, a terrific 1-0 outdueling of Beckett, and while Fenway Park was a house of horrors for him last year there’s no indication it will be in the playoffs. His slider was falling off the table in the ALDS, and outside of Beckett, he may have looked better than every other pitcher in baseball in Round One. Meanwhile, Schilling starting in Fenway again scares me a bit. He’s been more prone to home runs at home, and while Francona is likely to show a much quicker hook in the ALCS than during the regular season, there’s still the possibility of a suddenly big inning out there. So, I’m going to predict a split in Games 1 and 2, though a Schilling gem and 2-0 Sox lead wouldn’t completely shock me, just surprise me.
2) What about Games 3 and 4? How worried should Sox fans be about Matsuzaka-Wakefield/Lester? Also, should Sox fans be licking their chops when they see Jake Westbrook on the mound, or were his regular season stats against Boston (10 hits and five earned runs in six innings) a fluke?
Lost amidst all the talk about moving Schilling into the 2 slot was that it means Dice-K will start Game 3 in Cleveland. And perhaps lost in the analysis of that is just how impressive the Dice man was at Jacob’s Field earlier this year. He pitched a complete game win, out doing C.C. Sabathia, and helping the Sox win the season series. Clearly, that was a huge win in retrospect. Meanwhile, there’s no reason to doubt Westbrook’s stats against the Sox, particularly in the aftermath of another dismal performance in the ALDS, when the Yankees cleaned his clock. On paper, it looks like a very good matchup for the Sox.
Game 4, understandably, is much more troubling. Wakefield has looked absolutely cooked after his most recent back injury, and there’s concern over just how healthy he may be. If Wake isn’t comfortable, his knuckleball won’t move right and he’ll get clobbered. Meanwhile, Byrd is a wily veteran who doesn’t walk batters, gets tough outs and sent the Yankees to the golf course. I’m getting a headache just thinking about this match up, so let’s move to the next question.
3) When analysts talk about Boston’s strengths this year, the deep bullpen always comes up. Cleveland’s wasn’t bad, though, finishing with the sixth best ERA (3.75) in the Majors. How important is getting to the Indians bullpen, and where do potential advantages for the Red Sox lay?
Getting to the bullpen is actually only an advantage against Sabathia and Carmona, because that duo has been so nasty. The two Rafaels have been almost unhittable and seem to be surging in the postseason. And while the numbers aren’t kind to Joe Borowski, Sweaty Joe does keep getting results. Really, how Boston hits off the Indian relievers in Games 1 and 2 really may set a tone for the entire series. Get mowed down and the Tribe kids may get more confidence and roll from there. Knocking in a few late-inning runs early – particularly off the Rafaels - could be all but essential.
4) The Indians had six players hit between 18 and 25 home runs, but no one with more than that. They also had only one starter, Victor Martinez hit more than .300 (he hit .301). How should Boston pitch to the Cleveland lineup?
While there may not be too many stellar OPS guys, Cleveland’s lineup is much, MUCH more balanced than Boston’s. There’s not any easy outs. Martinez has been an absolute terror, Hafner seems to be peaking at just the right time and there’s youth abundant. I’m not sold on Asdrubal Cabrera, ALDS homer aside, and first baseman Ryan Garko is so streaky that the Sox may be able to handle him. Grady Sizemore wasn’t too impressive in Round One, but he scares me and I think could secretly be the key to the series. If he starts getting on to lead off games and innings – particularly against Dice-K and Wake – major problems could follow. It’s not a pretty picture. The other big problem looming? Kenny Lofton, the center fielder who just never goes away. He had his best postseason series in years against the Yanks and seems poised to cause more headaches in Fenway.
5) One Trot Nixon returns to the postseason on Friday, as well. He doesn’t play much anymore… will he have any impact on the series, and what kind?
Trot seems ticketed for one or two key pinch hitting spots, particularly in Fenway. Remember, the every day Indian in right is a rookie (Franklin Gutierrez) so a couple bad at bats in the friendly confines and Eric Wedge may flex his well-documented right to re-consider his lineup. After all, Trot does know how to lace a hot grounder down that first base line, doesn’t he?
6) Tell me something the common fan misses when discussing the series. Any surprises jump out at you when looking at the two teams and their statistics?
There’s an emerging perception that Papelbon is the big x-factor in this series because he’s more reliable than Borowski, but it strikes me that the much bigger factor is the teams’ respective middle relievers. Assuming Tito Francona goes with Okie Dokie in the 8th inning setup role again before Papelbon, that still leaves question marks in the sixth and seventh innings. Assuming Sox starters can get there, Manny Delcarmen seems to be the main go-to-guy for a sixth inning look. That leaves Mike Timlin and Eric Gagne – who gave up a meaningless run in Game 3 against the Angels – to fight out the seventh inning. Will Francona actually trust Gagne in a tight spot late, or will he take his chances with the 40 year-old jack of all trades Timlin? Will Timlin still be sharp after not pitching in a game in two weeks? Lester is clearly the long-man, but would the Sox use him if Dice-K falters? Lots of questions here, to be sure. Meanwhile, the Sox have to prove they can hit the Rafaels and Jensen Lewis. There’s absolutely no guarantee they can, and just ask the Yankees how easy it is. Put it all together and, despite all the attention being placed on Borowski, any late homers off him won’t matter unless Boston can hit the earlier guys.
Another fascinating plot line revolves around the tendency of Sox players who are former Indians to perform ridiculously well at Jacob’s Field. Just look at Coco’s number from the early season series. If Coco, Alex Cora in a pinch, Manny Ramirez, etc. come through, the series could swing on that alone.
7) So, who wins? Why?
I’m going with the Sox in 6 or 7. If you pinned me down I’d say seven, because I can’t imagine Schilling beating Carmona in a Game 6 at Jacob’s Field. Still, I think Boston will be able to pull out a couple of wins behind bashes from Ortiz and Ramirez, who finally looks dialed in for the first time this year. Additionally, I really am looking for big things from Coco Crisp, who was a monster in Cleveland earlier this year. Add strange statistical aberrations like Bobby Kielty’s success against C.C. Sabathia, and I think Boston will claw this one out. But it’ll be close, it’ll require a lot of TUMS and (not or) Pepto Bismol, and it will have Sox fans clamoring for NL opponents, which could end up biting Boston in the World Series (if Colorado wins the NLCS). Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
When he’s on, hitting his spots and grooving multiple pitches around the plate, Daisuke Matsuzaka can be one of the best pitchers in baseball, a man worth the massive $103 million contract that brought him over from Japan in the offseason. When he’s off, he can look like a minor leaguer still unable to hold his composure in prime time.
His arrival was much hyped, and some of his performances have lived up to the attention. But the real question is whether Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first playoff outing tonight will meet the $103 million demands.
The question of which Dice-K will show up tonight has to have some Sox fans shuddering. They have good reason to.
But while determining which Matsuzaka will make an appearance for Game 2 at Fenway Park might seem a total crap shoot, it’s actually more predictable than it might seem. Quite frankly, fans should know within the first couple of innings if Dice-K is on top of his game. Maybe much earlier than that.
In fact, they might be able to tell within the first 10 pitches.
That’s because Dice-K has been at his best, the pitcher he was expected to be when brought from the Land of the Rising Son, when he’s locating more than one pitch. And regardless of which pitch it is, the most important one he needs to land is strike one.
Just look at the data. In one of Matsuzaka’s most dominant starts, his career opening victory in Kansas City, the Dice-man drilled in first-pitch strikes to 19 of 26 batters. In a game against Cleveland he was masterful through five innings, tossing first-pitch strikes to 13 batters while mystifying the Tribe.
What happened after that? He melted down, giving up four runs in the sixth in a loss to Paul Byrd.
Those bugaboo innings have cost Matsuzaka dearly all year, perhaps taking as many as five wins away from his season total. But he’s appeared more consistent later in games over his final three appearances of the regular season, capped off with a masterful eight-inning win against Minnesota last Saturday.
So which Dice-K shows up tonight? If he locates his pitches early, it will almost certainly be the dominant Dice-Man, the pitcher who has looked like the man Boston fans expected to see when rumors of their massive $51.11111 million posting fee leaked last December.
And what if he doesn’t? Well, then the Sox are probably in for a long evening, with Dice-K’s well documented struggles to maintain his consistent placement once runners get on base (let alone with bothering gnats like the Angels runners on the basepaths).
But at least now Sox fans know what to expect, and what will make a difference. Perhaps most significantly, they’ll know what they’re getting from Dice-K, and they’ll probably know it early.
We were recently part of a blog roundtable hosted by Red Sox Monster and MassLive’s inimitable Dan Lamothe, so we thought we’d share our answers in preview of tonight’s Sox-Angels lid lifter. For those interested in the full roundtable answers, which also included bloggers from Red Sox Stat Guy, Sox & Dawgs and The Joy of Sox, here’s the spot for all your answers. Definitely a good anticipatory read.
And while we may not have hit the mark as squarely on some questions as our friends in the blogosphere, here’s our distilled question-by-question answers for your perusal. Interested to see what everyone thinks.
Isn’t it amazing how there are almost no questions about Mike Lowell heading into the playoffs? That’s how ridiculously reliable Dr. Double has been. It’s uncanny.
1) OK, let’s start with some basics. Since they clinched home field advantage in the playoffs, the Red Sox had the choice on what kind of schedule they wanted to play. They opted for “B,” which could extend the series to eight days, rather than seven. Good or bad for the Sox, considering the state of affairs for the two pitching staffs?
This seems like an obvious boost for the Sox, since it allows them to use both Josh “Don’t F@%$ with me” Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka twice. Now, a week ago, that previous sentence probably would have included using Beckett and Curt Schilling twice, but Terry Francona’s already decided to stick his neck out there before the playoffs even begin, opting for two potential Dice-K starts rather than two of the man who has enough nicknames to form a band himself: Mr. Ankle and his “Pay Me” Chorus! Still, while that might seem like a shaky move, Sox fans have to remember that Matsuzaka-san’s big-game dominance in the World Baseball Classic and throughout his Japanese career were two of the biggest reasons they were willing to shell out the GDP of a Central American nation to sign him. So what the hell, let’s roll with the Dice-Man.
OF course, if the Sox were playing the Angels, the schedule would mean two shots for both C.C. Sabathia and the operatic Fausto Carmona, which would be a VERY bad thing (good luck New York! Not!). But with the Angels, it means Jon Lackey at Fenway, where he’s been ROCKED (0-2, 8.38 ERA at the Fens) and Kelvim “Don’t Call me Kelvin” Escobar. That’s a much more palatable double dip, wouldn’t you say.
Then there’s the bullpen factor. While Hideki Okajima looked great against Minnesota over the weekend, there are bound to be some lingering concerns about the health of his arm. Having an extra day of rest between the first three games on helps things from a set-up angle.
2) The Red Sox went 6-4 against the Angels this season, but that includes a three-game sweep in April, when the Angels were struggling with injuries. How afraid should Red Sox fans be of the Angels? Would they have been better off drawing Cleveland in the first round?
The answer to the second part of this question, quite frankly, is a resounding NO! The Indians are straight up terrifying, and while the Halos can cause a lot of headaches on the basepaths, they’re incredibly over reliant on three guys for their power numbers: 1) Vlad Guerrero, who may have hurt his hand in the season’s final series, 2) Gary Matthews Jr., who DEFINITELY hurt his knee in the final series, and 3) old Boston favorite Orlando Cabrera, who has been dinged up a good portion of the season. If Boston’s pitchers can keep the O-Cab and gnats like Chone Figgins off the basepaths, there shouldn’t be too much to worry about. Certainly, the pitching seems like a distinct Boston advantage (again, see above), which wouldn’t be the case against the Tribe. We’ll see if that shakes out later, but let’s note get ahead of ourselves. Or the Red Sox.
3) Josh Beckett has been reliable throughout the season. For a second, though, let’s say he loses Game 1. Does anything change for the Sox?
Nope. If Joshie gets rocked, then Joshie gets rocked. One would hope he can find a way to avoid the kind of meltdown he had against Minny at the Fens the other day, but you never know. Down 0-1, Game 2 obviously becomes a virtual must win, but isn’t that when you want Dice-K on the mound? And any questions about his ability to come through in big games should be somewhat quelled by his performance in his last three regular season starts, which ranged from admirable to downright dominant. Ask Minnesota.
4) The Angels clinched the American League West on Sept. 23, then rested their regulars a fair amount of the time thereafter. It’s an age-old question, but advantage or disadvantage?
Neither, because while it might have helped, when Mike Sciosca played his starters they kept getting hurt! It’s remarkable. While it would have seemed like a nice refreshing bounce going into the playoffs, now LA has a handful of questions about Jr. Matthews, Vlad the Impaler, etc. (see above). So much for the rest, huh?
5) Tell us something that’s not common knowledge about this matchup. Anything the common fan has not noticed, do you think?
There’s so much talk about how the Angels run right at teams, about how they’re terror on the basebaths, you fill in your own baseball cliche here, basically. But as much as the Halos could present problems, some of that is mitigated by Tim Wakefield being left off the roster, which helps both in keeping them from running on him and also keeping Varitek as the arm behind the plate. Conversely, the Sox could be in an interesting position to turn the “run-happy” table on LA of Anaheim of Orange County of California of you get the idea. If Tito stacks the bottom of the lineup with two of Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo and Jacoby Ellsbury, you can bet those guys will be galloping trying to create runs. Ellsbury in particular could have a huge impact on the series. It’ll be fascinating to see how Tito works him into lineups and, failing that, into games as a super-sub. As good as J.D. Drew has been the last couple weeks, Ellsbury has been a revelation at the plate and on the base paths. It’s almost impossible to imagine he’s not going to get serious run, whether he’s filling in for Drew or Crisp. We do know he won’t be filling in for Manny, barring an injury. In fact, let’s not even imagine that possibility. Just forget I just wrote that. I’ll go singe the hair off my left forearm as pennance, so don’t worry, we’re all good.
As for the Angels, one HUGE dark horse to watch for is Casey Kotchman. We really can’t figure out why for the life of us, but the guy just gets Boston pitching. He hit a remarkable .343 against the Sox this year, with a handful of those hits making a difference out in Anaheim. Yes Sox fans, this is your official cue to go start digging up personal dirt to scream at him at the plate tomorrow afternoon.
6) So, who will win? What separates these two teams in the end?
Pitching separates the two teams in the end, just as it always does in the playoffs. Naturally, the Sox will have to get to the Angels’ starters, because the LA pen is pretty damn solid, what with Justin Speier and Scott Shields setting up K-Rod. It mirrors the Sox pen (the GOOD version) remarkably well, all the way down to Shields having an off year (see Eric Gagne) and Speier making up for it (see Okaji-san).
Still, with Matthews and Guerrero’s gimpiness, and with Lackey’s regular season tribulations as Fenway hanging like an albatross across Game 1, it’s hard to image the Sox go to Anaheim down 0-2, and really that’s the one way the Angels would seem like prohibitive favorites to pull out the series.
That means I’m picking the Sox, in either 3 or 4. I don’t see this puppy going full like those epic Oakland and Cleveland Divisional slates of the late ’90s. With a gun to my head I’d say 4 games as a buffer for a mediocre start from either Dice-K or “Buy my house in Medfield!”, but I would not be shocked by a sweep. Here’s hoping, right?
Maybe you’ve seen it by now, maybe you haven’t. If you’re in the latter category, you need to keep reading below.
When Boston clinched the AL East with New York’s loss Friday night, there were a number of notable Sox players who went back out onto the field to celebrate with the scattered fans who remained in Fenway Park. Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka show up in numerous photos, as do Tim Wakefield and David Ortiz, among others.
But while those players may have earned the most ink, no one could keep up with closer Jonathan Papelbon, who may have made a bigger ass out of himself than anyone since, well, George W. Bush. But don’t take our word for it, check it out yourself:
That’s right Red Sox fans, your closer of past, present and future is quite the Irish dancer. In fact, even Kevin Youkilis and Terry Francona were pretty taken with his moves, Youk in person and Tito, well, in the press, here via the Boston Globe.
“If he wasn’t, I’ll make sure Manny is aware we won today.”
But no one present last night, including Francona, missed Jonathan Papelbon’s wild Irish jig on the mound after the game.
“You mean, ‘The Riverdance’?” Francona said. “That’s one of the . . . he looked to me . . . I don’t want to call him a moron, but the only thing better than that was when he was inside dancing, wearing only a jock.
“That’s him. He’s young, carefree, a great kid. That said, when he gets on the mound, he’s all business. It’s a good mix.”
That’s right, a carefree kid with a nasty fastball, ridiculous splitter and a filthy new pitch which he calls a slutter. All puns intended, of course.
It’s official, the AL playoffs will go through Fenway Park. And guess who the Sox have to thank for that? A man by the name of Hideki Okajima.
That’s right, Okie has returned from his respite/vacation to toss two perfect innings in two nights, last night’s spotless frame in the ninth to shut down the Twins. He’s looking like the dominant set-up man from midseason, when he made the All Star Game as a rookie over much more highly touted countryman and teammate Daisuke Matsuzaka.
So, is Okie really back in form? Or is this all a mirage? The last two nights sure make it seem like he’s back and already forgetting prior struggles. When he was shut down indefinitely for a tired arm, the obvious problem with his pitching was that he wasn’t locating down in the zone. As his oferrings slowly floated up in the zone, they were getting crushed by career nobodies, setting up rampant comebacks and costing Boston wins.
Now Okajima-san is pounding the strike zone low again, with a couple more miles-per-hour on his fastball and his patented finger-tip control in full effect. It may not be spot on perfect yet, but it’s getting close.
Of course, the renaissance of Okajima breeds a whole new question: Who do the Sox use as an eighth inning setup man in the playoffs, as the bridge to power closer Jonathan Papelbon? While Eric Gagne has been good his last couple outings, he’s soldmore TUMS in New England than commercials based in a Philly diner. And while Okajima could slip back, it seems hard to believe they’d relegate him to purely seventh inning duty after this turn around in his last two outings. You don’t usually go from recording a save in the ninth to mop up duty and spot work in the sixth inning.
So it says here that Okie is the setup man, again. Naturally, we’re dealing with Terry Francona, so who knows if that will actually be the case.
Red Sox fans had to know that Theo Epstein’s build from within program was eventually going to creep back around and affect the team’s success one season. The team has developed such strict pitch/inning counts on young pitchers, that it was inevitable eventually one young gun would make an impact, then be held back despite the help he could give the big league club. There’s good reason for it, and the restraint definitely is in the best interest of the franchise’s future.
This will be the lasting memory of Clay Buchholz’s first spin in a Red Sox uniform, even if Boston wins the World Series. It didn’t have to be that way.
But it’s not in the franchise’s best interest now. Not only that, in the perilous case of Clay Buchholz, it may be a crushing blow to the team’s immediate playoff hopes.
By taking Buchholz out of the playoff equation, Epstein is essentially denying Terry Francona an ultimate playoff security blanket. While the team would intend to use Buchholz as an inning-by-inning reliever (think K-Rod circa 2002), it’s eminently possible that, should Tim Wakefield or Daisuke Matsuzaka falter badly in a start, or suffer an injury, sickness, you name it, Buchholz could have served as an incredible fill-in starter.
Admit it, you know it’s true. In fact, it’s more than true. If Buchholz had been on the roster, it’s probably almost inevitable that he either would have ended up with a playoff start, or at least worked the equivalent of one, entering in the second or third inning should another starter’s afternoon/evening go horribly wrong (think Matt Clement. Or don’t think it. That one is pretty painful to dwell on.).
In the end, that’s almost certainly what Epstein, assistant GM Ben Cherrington and the front office is thinking in shutting Buchholz down before the postseason even gets going. If Buchholz had entered a game and been as successful as most Sox fans - and baseball analysts, for that matter - assume he would be, it’s hard to believe that Francona would have been able to resist using him at every corner, particularly with the fatigue in the bullpen and ineffectiveness of important role relievers like Hideki Okajima down the stretch.
Does that make the move more understandable? Absolutely. There’s not even any question. Does it make it the right move? Not necessarily. If Boston feels it’s on the precipice of a World Series, how can it possibly justify keeping a golden bullet like Buchholz sheathed in its gun. Or stands, as the case may be. How can the Red Sox turn their back on a guy who’s been little short of incredible in his first few weeks on the job, give or take one horrible toss to third base in his third start?
How can the Red Sox forget about a pitcher who may have the second best stuff on a playoff team’s entire staff, better even than a guy who Boston paid $106 million for, throws six different pitches and was called a national treasure by the guy who paid $106 million?
That’s easy. They can’t forget about that guy. If they say they can, they’re lying. And while Epstein and even Francona may move on as if they know the full impact of this decision, there’s little doubt that it’ll haunt both if it ends up playing the decisive role in the postseason that it could.
It’s a big move folks. A big move. Now the Red Sox have to hope Hideki Okajima can return to form after his respite, Eric Gagne can channel his inner Dodger and Jonathan Papelbon can pitch like the mule he wants to be.
It’s an easy equation really. Win two games, and the Red Sox get the Angels in the first round. Lose out, or drop three of four to Minninniesota, watch the Yankees take three of four, and play Cleveland.
The ability to use Dice-K more than once in a five-game series would be a big advantage for the Sox, no?
As much as it might seem like the second scenario bodes equally well for postseason success, the Red Sox do NOT want to go into the playoffs limping as the Wild Card. Here’s why.
1) If the Sox can finish with the best record in the AL - and the best in the majors by defunct - they get to pick when they start the playoffs. No biggie, right? Wrong. Should the Sox elect to open the playoffs next Wednesday, they would get a five game series in which they could pitch only their top three pitchers. That’s Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka, with Beckett and either Schilling or Matsuzaka going twice, if necessary. That’s a big advantage, regardless of opponent.
2) Despite the fact that the Red Sox won the season series with Cleveland, the Indians are not the team to be tangling horns with right now. The Tribe has cruised through September, sweeping reigning AL champ Detroit out of the playoffs during a remarkable hot streak. The biggest two factors in that push have been C.C. Sabathia, i.e. Monsieur Beckett’s primary competition for the AL Cy Young, and second-year star Fausto Carmona. Wait, that Fausto Carmona? The one who gave up back-to-back walk-off hits to the Sox a year ago? The same. And if you watched him pitch against Boston earlier this summer, you know the difference between his two incarnations. No one wants any part of the Sabathia-Carmona double, particularly if you have you beat Carmona twice to advance. Yikes.
3) As much as final records serve as relatively bland trivia facts in the big scheme of things, they do have a significant impact on momentum headed into the playoffs. And let’s be completely frank, no one wants to cruise into the postseason on the brink of a meltdown. That’s the exact precipice the Sox appeared to be on a week ago, but they’ve since turned a corner behind a strong Schilling start and a patchwork outing from Jon Lester, Kyle Snyder and co. A good finish against Minnesota, a team which is finally grounded but suddenly playing like the ocntender they traditionally are, would be a great test heading into the playoffs. And the sooner the Sox can clinch the division, giving regulars a chance to rest as a result, the better.
Is any of this make or break to reach the World Series? Definitely not. After all, while Cleveland may look like the nightmare matchup at the moment, Anaheim is the team that keeps Yankee fans awake at night. Nonetheless, so much of the playoffs is about a team finding the easiest road possible. Remember 2004, when the Sox swept the Angels to set up a fully rested ALCS against the more entrenched Yankees? We all know how that turned out, and anyone who says the Yanks weren’t breathing fumes a bit in Game 7 doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
C.C. Sabathia may be a crooked-hat chunker, but he’s having an almost transcendent year for the Indians. That’s as good a reason as any to not want to play them.
So here’s hoping for a nice tidy conclusion, rather than another epic, drawn out, down to the wire race for a division title. Otherwise so much of the aforementioned three advantages will wash away like a flotilla of leaves in a September shower.
It’s almost impossible to get your head around, I know. But try anyway. Here it goes:
Today, the Yankees helped the Red Sox.
How great would it be to see that far left flag in red for the entire postseason? Pretty great, we think.
That’s right, thanks to a 4-1 Toronto win at Yankee Stadium, the Yanks got Boston a game closer to an AL East title, a game closer to ending that seemingly interminable run New York has had since 1995. A game closer to finally sticking the pinstripes with a set of final standings that force the flags above Yankee Stadium’s left field arch to fly a red banner emblazoned with “Boston” to the left of the navy blue sheet with “New York” on it.
Isn’t that, really, the best part of winning the division? Forcing the Yankees to fly a Boston flag in front of a Yankees banner for the entire playoffs? How great would that be? We don’t yet know the answer to that, because it’s never happened before. Ever. The last time Boston finished in front of the Yankees at season’s end, there was no Wild Card, so New York missed the playoffs.
This time, they’re definitely going. Well, not quite definitely yet. They’re still a win - or a Detroit loss - away from punching the final AL golden ticket out there.
Gratuitous editor’s sidenote alert! Isn’t the development of the playoff chases amazing? If consistency and season-long performance is any indicator of a team’s chances in the playoffs, it’s fair to say that the AL has all four of the best teams in the big leagues. There isn’t a single NL team that’s locked up a playoff spot yet. And of the three likely division winners - the Mets, Cubs and Diamondbacks - do any of them really scare you as a Red Sox fan? Really? The Wild Card winner, whichever team it ends up being, seems a much more significant threat. The Phillies have a devastating lineup that’s finally all healthy together, the Padres have the best pitching in the NL and are perhaps the only NL rotation that could compete with the Sox’s depth in a seven-game series. And then there’s Colorado, which won a midseason series … at Fenway. For what it’s worth, his performance in that three-game set, not to mention the Boston front office’s longstanding obsession with his OPS stats, would seem to make resurrecting a trade for Todd Helton a very likely possibility in the offseason if the current A-Rod to Chicago rumors are true.
Still, all of this would make it seem that the Red Sox are in terrific shape heading into the playoffs, right up to the point when you consider who they’ll have to play. They’ve shown throughout the second half that they can’t beat the Yankees. They’ve played well against the Angels at Fenway, but will need to win games in the final six-pack here to ensure they can hold a home-field advantage and avoid playing surrounded by damn Rally Monkeys. And then there’s the Indians, who Boston has dealt with well, but who may be playing better baseball than anyone except, well, the Yankees.
All of this is to say that you have to grab what you can when you can. The Sox grabbed a huge division lead early in the season, and the monstrous Yankee charge in the second half is proving that it’s a damn good thing they did. The what they can grab now is a long-awaited AL East title. The when they can grab it is in the next week. Six games, five wins or Yankee losses needed to sew it up.
These guys are PRECISELY why the Red Sox need to win the division.
The playoffs are clinched, but that’s little consolation at a time like this. It’s time to channel Detroit, Chicago and even the Idiot Sox and get hot. Now. If they do, there’s no telling what comes next, and suddenly the second-half swoon would all be a distant memory.
