For Dice-K, Red Sox, Game 2 is all about control

When he’s on, hitting his spots and grooving multiple pitches around the plate, Daisuke Matsuzaka can be one of the best pitchers in baseball, a man worth the massive $103 million contract that brought him over from Japan in the offseason. When he’s off, he can look like a minor leaguer still unable to hold his composure in prime time.

His arrival was much hyped, and some of his performances have lived up to the attention. But the real question is whether Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first playoff outing tonight will meet the $103 million demands.

The question of which Dice-K will show up tonight has to have some Sox fans shuddering. They have good reason to.

But while determining which Matsuzaka will make an appearance for Game 2 at Fenway Park might seem a total crap shoot, it’s actually more predictable than it might seem. Quite frankly, fans should know within the first couple of innings if Dice-K is on top of his game. Maybe much earlier than that.

In fact, they might be able to tell within the first 10 pitches.

That’s because Dice-K has been at his best, the pitcher he was expected to be when brought from the Land of the Rising Son, when he’s locating more than one pitch. And regardless of which pitch it is, the most important one he needs to land is strike one.

Just look at the data. In one of Matsuzaka’s most dominant starts, his career opening victory in Kansas City, the Dice-man drilled in first-pitch strikes to 19 of 26 batters. In a game against Cleveland he was masterful through five innings, tossing first-pitch strikes to 13 batters while mystifying the Tribe.

What happened after that? He melted down, giving up four runs in the sixth in a loss to Paul Byrd.

Those bugaboo innings have cost Matsuzaka dearly all year, perhaps taking as many as five wins away from his season total. But he’s appeared more consistent later in games over his final three appearances of the regular season, capped off with a masterful eight-inning win against Minnesota last Saturday.

So which Dice-K shows up tonight? If he locates his pitches early, it will almost certainly be the dominant Dice-Man, the pitcher who has looked like the man Boston fans expected to see when rumors of their massive $51.11111 million posting fee leaked last December.

And what if he doesn’t? Well, then the Sox are probably in for a long evening, with Dice-K’s well documented struggles to maintain his consistent placement once runners get on base (let alone with bothering gnats like the Angels runners on the basepaths).

But at least now Sox fans know what to expect, and what will make a difference. Perhaps most significantly, they’ll know what they’re getting from Dice-K, and they’ll probably know it early.

– Cameron Smith