Making Mike Lowell’s case

Now that all the celebratory champagne has started to dry, the Red Sox have to start to think about some business. And first on the to-do list is the reigning World Series MVP.

Dr. Double has a lot to celebrate: A World Series MVP and, in all likelihood, a rich, multi-year contract coming up.

From a sentimental standpoint, resigning Mike Lowell is a no-brainer. Dr. Double hit .400 in the World Series, was nearly as effective in the two earlier playoff series and was Boston’s best clutch hitter throughout the season. He out RBI’d David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, for God sakes, and he even led the team in home runs at the All-Star break. Clearly, Lowell hit his stride, and he did it at the best possible time: during a contract year.

That being said, for every immense positive Lowell has brought the Sox over the last two years, there’s a potential downside to his re-acquisition. Coming off the best season of his career, the articulate and thoughtful third baseman will almost surely demand a three or four-year deal. He’s only 33 now, but even a three-year deal would push him beyond 35, the age threshold the Sox have set for keeping players under multi-year contracts. Boston was willing to get creative in re-signing catcher Jason Varitek, creating a clever, one-time clause that works as a default no-trade provision, and it’s likely Lowell would demand similar treatment because he’s been so comfortable playing in Boston.

So, let’s look at the overall parameters. To keep Lowell, the Sox will have to chip in a raise from his current salary - $9 million per year - and they’ll have to commit to at least three years, meaning they’ll be paying a 36 year-old somewhere in the $10-12 million range in 2010. Additionally, they might not be able to trade that 36 year-old, so they have to be absolutely certain that his power numbers won’t take a dip, considering his slot at one of the corner infield spots.

Of course, that’s when the other side of Lowell’s track record comes in. Dr. Double got off to a blazing start in his first Fenway season, too, but he tailed off badly after the break, leading some to question his stamina and durability. He quieted those concerns in 2007, but additional age can take it’s toll, particularly when one season goes for another entire month, as this year did with a World Series.

So, if you’re Theo Epstein, what do you do? It’ a truly tough issue, and it’s not made any easier by the fact that the fans have clearly said their piece. A petition circulating online had more than 8,000 signatures for the Sox to keep Lowell, and that was just two days after his MVP trophy was first handed over. Throughout the parade route through Boston streets this afternoon, fans waved signs imploring management to re-sign Lowell. At one point, Varitek got even more people involved, taking one of the signs and waving it himself.

And perhaps that move itself is symbolic of the true turning point in the Lowell debate. When Varitek was brought back aboard, a big part of management’s willingness to accommodate his needs was based on how he thrived in Boston, how he was devoted to the team and fan base and his importance with the pitching staff and in the clubhouse, as a leader. It’s why the team insisted on emblazoning his jersey with a captain’s “C”, the first given out in more than 20 years. Lowell has a similar role with this team. He’s one of the leaders, one of the even-keeled performers who truly thrives in Boston. He performs better when the team desperately needs a hit, and he was so effective that he emerged as one of the best No. 5 hitters in the game, the protection for Big Papi and Manny that the team thought it was getting with J.D. Drew.

In fact, Lowell was so good that it took the pressure off of Drew, finally allowing him to hit the way the team envisioned he would. When a player is so good under particular circumstances that it makes everyone else better, that’s when you know he’s invaluable, perhaps even irreplaceable.

All of that means that Lowell truly is invaluable. Irreplaceable even. And the fans are right. Re-sign Mike Lowell. Do that, and things really may fall into place.

– Cameron Smith, MLB photo