Red Sox Monster Roundtable

We were recently part of a blog roundtable hosted by Red Sox Monster and MassLive’s inimitable Dan Lamothe, so we thought we’d share our answers in preview of tonight’s Sox-Angels lid lifter. For those interested in the full roundtable answers, which also included bloggers from Red Sox Stat Guy, Sox & Dawgs and The Joy of Sox, here’s the spot for all your answers. Definitely a good anticipatory read.

And while we may not have hit the mark as squarely on some questions as our friends in the blogosphere, here’s our distilled question-by-question answers for your perusal. Interested to see what everyone thinks.

Isn’t it amazing how there are almost no questions about Mike Lowell heading into the playoffs? That’s how ridiculously reliable Dr. Double has been. It’s uncanny.

1) OK, let’s start with some basics. Since they clinched home field advantage in the playoffs, the Red Sox had the choice on what kind of schedule they wanted to play. They opted for “B,” which could extend the series to eight days, rather than seven. Good or bad for the Sox, considering the state of affairs for the two pitching staffs?

This seems like an obvious boost for the Sox, since it allows them to use both Josh “Don’t F@%$ with me” Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka twice. Now, a week ago, that previous sentence probably would have included using Beckett and Curt Schilling twice, but Terry Francona’s already decided to stick his neck out there before the playoffs even begin, opting for two potential Dice-K starts rather than two of the man who has enough nicknames to form a band himself: Mr. Ankle and his “Pay Me” Chorus! Still, while that might seem like a shaky move, Sox fans have to remember that Matsuzaka-san’s big-game dominance in the World Baseball Classic and throughout his Japanese career were two of the biggest reasons they were willing to shell out the GDP of a Central American nation to sign him. So what the hell, let’s roll with the Dice-Man.

OF course, if the Sox were playing the Angels, the schedule would mean two shots for both C.C. Sabathia and the operatic Fausto Carmona, which would be a VERY bad thing (good luck New York! Not!). But with the Angels, it means Jon Lackey at Fenway, where he’s been ROCKED (0-2, 8.38 ERA at the Fens) and Kelvim “Don’t Call me Kelvin” Escobar. That’s a much more palatable double dip, wouldn’t you say.

Then there’s the bullpen factor. While Hideki Okajima looked great against Minnesota over the weekend, there are bound to be some lingering concerns about the health of his arm. Having an extra day of rest between the first three games on helps things from a set-up angle.

2) The Red Sox went 6-4 against the Angels this season, but that includes a three-game sweep in April, when the Angels were struggling with injuries. How afraid should Red Sox fans be of the Angels? Would they have been better off drawing Cleveland in the first round?

The answer to the second part of this question, quite frankly, is a resounding NO! The Indians are straight up terrifying, and while the Halos can cause a lot of headaches on the basepaths, they’re incredibly over reliant on three guys for their power numbers: 1) Vlad Guerrero, who may have hurt his hand in the season’s final series, 2) Gary Matthews Jr., who DEFINITELY hurt his knee in the final series, and 3) old Boston favorite Orlando Cabrera, who has been dinged up a good portion of the season. If Boston’s pitchers can keep the O-Cab and gnats like Chone Figgins off the basepaths, there shouldn’t be too much to worry about. Certainly, the pitching seems like a distinct Boston advantage (again, see above), which wouldn’t be the case against the Tribe. We’ll see if that shakes out later, but let’s note get ahead of ourselves. Or the Red Sox.

3) Josh Beckett has been reliable throughout the season. For a second, though, let’s say he loses Game 1. Does anything change for the Sox?

Nope. If Joshie gets rocked, then Joshie gets rocked. One would hope he can find a way to avoid the kind of meltdown he had against Minny at the Fens the other day, but you never know. Down 0-1, Game 2 obviously becomes a virtual must win, but isn’t that when you want Dice-K on the mound? And any questions about his ability to come through in big games should be somewhat quelled by his performance in his last three regular season starts, which ranged from admirable to downright dominant. Ask Minnesota.

4) The Angels clinched the American League West on Sept. 23, then rested their regulars a fair amount of the time thereafter. It’s an age-old question, but advantage or disadvantage?

Neither, because while it might have helped, when Mike Sciosca played his starters they kept getting hurt! It’s remarkable. While it would have seemed like a nice refreshing bounce going into the playoffs, now LA has a handful of questions about Jr. Matthews, Vlad the Impaler, etc. (see above). So much for the rest, huh?

5) Tell us something that’s not common knowledge about this matchup. Anything the common fan has not noticed, do you think?

There’s so much talk about how the Angels run right at teams, about how they’re terror on the basebaths, you fill in your own baseball cliche here, basically. But as much as the Halos could present problems, some of that is mitigated by Tim Wakefield being left off the roster, which helps both in keeping them from running on him and also keeping Varitek as the arm behind the plate. Conversely, the Sox could be in an interesting position to turn the “run-happy” table on LA of Anaheim of Orange County of California of you get the idea. If Tito stacks the bottom of the lineup with two of Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo and Jacoby Ellsbury, you can bet those guys will be galloping trying to create runs. Ellsbury in particular could have a huge impact on the series. It’ll be fascinating to see how Tito works him into lineups and, failing that, into games as a super-sub. As good as J.D. Drew has been the last couple weeks, Ellsbury has been a revelation at the plate and on the base paths. It’s almost impossible to imagine he’s not going to get serious run, whether he’s filling in for Drew or Crisp. We do know he won’t be filling in for Manny, barring an injury. In fact, let’s not even imagine that possibility. Just forget I just wrote that. I’ll go singe the hair off my left forearm as pennance, so don’t worry, we’re all good.

As for the Angels, one HUGE dark horse to watch for is Casey Kotchman. We really can’t figure out why for the life of us, but the guy just gets Boston pitching. He hit a remarkable .343 against the Sox this year, with a handful of those hits making a difference out in Anaheim. Yes Sox fans, this is your official cue to go start digging up personal dirt to scream at him at the plate tomorrow afternoon.

6) So, who will win? What separates these two teams in the end?

Pitching separates the two teams in the end, just as it always does in the playoffs. Naturally, the Sox will have to get to the Angels’ starters, because the LA pen is pretty damn solid, what with Justin Speier and Scott Shields setting up K-Rod. It mirrors the Sox pen (the GOOD version) remarkably well, all the way down to Shields having an off year (see Eric Gagne) and Speier making up for it (see Okaji-san).

Still, with Matthews and Guerrero’s gimpiness, and with Lackey’s regular season tribulations as Fenway hanging like an albatross across Game 1, it’s hard to image the Sox go to Anaheim down 0-2, and really that’s the one way the Angels would seem like prohibitive favorites to pull out the series.

That means I’m picking the Sox, in either 3 or 4. I don’t see this puppy going full like those epic Oakland and Cleveland Divisional slates of the late ’90s. With a gun to my head I’d say 4 games as a buffer for a mediocre start from either Dice-K or “Buy my house in Medfield!”, but I would not be shocked by a sweep. Here’s hoping, right?