Red Sox Monster’s ALCS Roundtable

 

For the second straight playoff round, Red Sox Monster has set up a pretty strong blogger roundtable surveying Boston’s prospects for the round ahead. We were part of the group again hosted by Red Sox Monster and MassLive’s inimitable Dan Lamothe, so we thought we’d share our answers in preview of tonight’s Sox-Indians series starter. For those interested in the full roundtable answers, which also included bloggers from Red Sox Stat Guy, Sox & Dawgs and The Joy of Sox and Texas Gal of Babes Love Baseball. Definitely a good anticipatory read. Here’s the entire piece for your perusal: Red Sox Monster Roundtable

And while we may not have hit the mark as squarely on some questions as our friends in the blogosphere, here’s our distilled question-by-question answers for your perusal. Interested to see what everyone thinks.

1) One of the big things we all have been hearing this week is that the Indians have an advantage because of Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia. Last time I checked, though, the Red Sox beat Sabathia in a nail-biter once already this year and won five out of seven against the Tribe. How does Beckett-Schilling vs. Sabathia-Carmona play out for the two teams?

This, clearly, is the duel duels of the playoffs, if you will. I like Beckett over Sabathia because of both home field advantage and the performance of both pitchers in Game 1 of their respective ALDS’s. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen Beckett more in control than he was in Game 1 against the Angels, and Sabathia looked nervous throughout his team’s win. That being said, it’s possible that moving away from the Jacob’s Field crowd will help C.C. We’ll have to see.

As for Schilling-Carmona, Game 2 scares me significantly more. Carmona already has one win over the Sox, a terrific 1-0 outdueling of Beckett, and while Fenway Park was a house of horrors for him last year there’s no indication it will be in the playoffs. His slider was falling off the table in the ALDS, and outside of Beckett, he may have looked better than every other pitcher in baseball in Round One. Meanwhile, Schilling starting in Fenway again scares me a bit. He’s been more prone to home runs at home, and while Francona is likely to show a much quicker hook in the ALCS than during the regular season, there’s still the possibility of a suddenly big inning out there. So, I’m going to predict a split in Games 1 and 2, though a Schilling gem and 2-0 Sox lead wouldn’t completely shock me, just surprise me.

2) What about Games 3 and 4? How worried should Sox fans be about Matsuzaka-Wakefield/Lester? Also, should Sox fans be licking their chops when they see Jake Westbrook on the mound, or were his regular season stats against Boston (10 hits and five earned runs in six innings) a fluke?

Lost amidst all the talk about moving Schilling into the 2 slot was that it means Dice-K will start Game 3 in Cleveland. And perhaps lost in the analysis of that is just how impressive the Dice man was at Jacob’s Field earlier this year. He pitched a complete game win, out doing C.C. Sabathia, and helping the Sox win the season series. Clearly, that was a huge win in retrospect. Meanwhile, there’s no reason to doubt Westbrook’s stats against the Sox, particularly in the aftermath of another dismal performance in the ALDS, when the Yankees cleaned his clock. On paper, it looks like a very good matchup for the Sox.

Game 4, understandably, is much more troubling. Wakefield has looked absolutely cooked after his most recent back injury, and there’s concern over just how healthy he may be. If Wake isn’t comfortable, his knuckleball won’t move right and he’ll get clobbered. Meanwhile, Byrd is a wily veteran who doesn’t walk batters, gets tough outs and sent the Yankees to the golf course. I’m getting a headache just thinking about this match up, so let’s move to the next question.

3) When analysts talk about Boston’s strengths this year, the deep bullpen always comes up. Cleveland’s wasn’t bad, though, finishing with the sixth best ERA (3.75) in the Majors. How important is getting to the Indians bullpen, and where do potential advantages for the Red Sox lay?

Getting to the bullpen is actually only an advantage against Sabathia and Carmona, because that duo has been so nasty. The two Rafaels have been almost unhittable and seem to be surging in the postseason. And while the numbers aren’t kind to Joe Borowski, Sweaty Joe does keep getting results. Really, how Boston hits off the Indian relievers in Games 1 and 2 really may set a tone for the entire series. Get mowed down and the Tribe kids may get more confidence and roll from there. Knocking in a few late-inning runs early – particularly off the Rafaels - could be all but essential.

4) The Indians had six players hit between 18 and 25 home runs, but no one with more than that. They also had only one starter, Victor Martinez hit more than .300 (he hit .301). How should Boston pitch to the Cleveland lineup?

While there may not be too many stellar OPS guys, Cleveland’s lineup is much, MUCH more balanced than Boston’s. There’s not any easy outs. Martinez has been an absolute terror, Hafner seems to be peaking at just the right time and there’s youth abundant. I’m not sold on Asdrubal Cabrera, ALDS homer aside, and first baseman Ryan Garko is so streaky that the Sox may be able to handle him. Grady Sizemore wasn’t too impressive in Round One, but he scares me and I think could secretly be the key to the series. If he starts getting on to lead off games and innings – particularly against Dice-K and Wake – major problems could follow. It’s not a pretty picture. The other big problem looming? Kenny Lofton, the center fielder who just never goes away. He had his best postseason series in years against the Yanks and seems poised to cause more headaches in Fenway.

5) One Trot Nixon returns to the postseason on Friday, as well. He doesn’t play much anymore… will he have any impact on the series, and what kind?

Trot seems ticketed for one or two key pinch hitting spots, particularly in Fenway. Remember, the every day Indian in right is a rookie (Franklin Gutierrez) so a couple bad at bats in the friendly confines and Eric Wedge may flex his well-documented right to re-consider his lineup. After all, Trot does know how to lace a hot grounder down that first base line, doesn’t he?

6) Tell me something the common fan misses when discussing the series. Any surprises jump out at you when looking at the two teams and their statistics?

There’s an emerging perception that Papelbon is the big x-factor in this series because he’s more reliable than Borowski, but it strikes me that the much bigger factor is the teams’ respective middle relievers. Assuming Tito Francona goes with Okie Dokie in the 8th inning setup role again before Papelbon, that still leaves question marks in the sixth and seventh innings. Assuming Sox starters can get there, Manny Delcarmen seems to be the main go-to-guy for a sixth inning look. That leaves Mike Timlin and Eric Gagne – who gave up a meaningless run in Game 3 against the Angels – to fight out the seventh inning. Will Francona actually trust Gagne in a tight spot late, or will he take his chances with the 40 year-old jack of all trades Timlin? Will Timlin still be sharp after not pitching in a game in two weeks? Lester is clearly the long-man, but would the Sox use him if Dice-K falters? Lots of questions here, to be sure. Meanwhile, the Sox have to prove they can hit the Rafaels and Jensen Lewis. There’s absolutely no guarantee they can, and just ask the Yankees how easy it is. Put it all together and, despite all the attention being placed on Borowski, any late homers off him won’t matter unless Boston can hit the earlier guys.

Another fascinating plot line revolves around the tendency of Sox players who are former Indians to perform ridiculously well at Jacob’s Field. Just look at Coco’s number from the early season series. If Coco, Alex Cora in a pinch, Manny Ramirez, etc. come through, the series could swing on that alone.


7) So, who wins? Why?

I’m going with the Sox in 6 or 7. If you pinned me down I’d say seven, because I can’t imagine Schilling beating Carmona in a Game 6 at Jacob’s Field. Still, I think Boston will be able to pull out a couple of wins behind bashes from Ortiz and Ramirez, who finally looks dialed in for the first time this year. Additionally, I really am looking for big things from Coco Crisp, who was a monster in Cleveland earlier this year. Add strange statistical aberrations like Bobby Kielty’s success against C.C. Sabathia, and I think Boston will claw this one out. But it’ll be close, it’ll require a lot of TUMS and (not or) Pepto Bismol, and it will have Sox fans clamoring for NL opponents, which could end up biting Boston in the World Series (if Colorado wins the NLCS). Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

– Cameron Smith

 

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