The Daisuke Experience, Act 842

When Daisuke Matsuzaka takes the mound at Coors Field tonight, he will have answered questions about his guts and guile once in the postseason already. Still, his first response - a resoundingly solid, if not spectacular, five-inning outing against the Indians in Game 7 of the ALCS - was enough to quiet alarms that he had crumbled under the expectations of a monstrous salary and posting fee. But it wasn’t enough to answer all questions about whether he truly is a big game pitcher, at least in the major leagues.

It’s chilly in Colorado, but Daisuke Matsuzaka will have a chance to make a lot of his detractors warm to his performance and potential.

That, after all, was the primary reason the Red Sox splurged on his services over the winter. Matsuzaka filled a pressing need: a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, and he did so with immeasurable flair and panache. For the tidy sum of $103 million, the Sox expected to add a shutdown starter who possessed five, arguably six, pitches and a resume chock full of victories in notable international contests, let alone his historic high school exploits.

Through the first half of the season, it looked like Boston was on the winner’s side of that bargain. Dice-K keep batters mixed up and miffed, mowing down hitters at the second-fastest clip in the American League while working around problematic innings of walks and timely hits to rack up 12 wins. He easily could have had 15, if not for matchups against opposing aces on their best, like Seattle’s Felix Hernandez.

The second half was far different, making Matsuzaka’s former Japanese squad, Seibu, look like thieves of Sox owner John Henry’s money. Dice-K struggled, then fell into pits of awful pitching. He was shellacked by the lowly Baltimore Orioles. He looked like he was done, his fastball losing velocity and location.

Then, after a few extra days of rest, he bounced back. It was Matsuzaka’s night on the mound when the Sox clinched the AL East. A week later, he had a solid, if brief, outing against the Angels that set the tone for a 2-0 series lead in the ALDS. Then, in the aftermath of severe disappointment in ALCS Game 3, he bounced back for five innings and the all important win in Game 7, setting the stage for his start tonight.

It’s almost impossible to predict which Matsuzaka will show up tonight in Colorado. It could be the dominant ace from overseas, the one who commands five or six pitches and isn’t afraid to use any of them in any count. It could be the meek, shell-shocked Dice-K of the second half, waiting to duck to avoid a line drive in between pitches.

Or it could be the pitcher on the mound in Game 7, an amalgamation of the two, occasionally dominant, occasionally struggling, but always mustering enough moxie to get a big out. If that’s the guy who shows up, Boston should be in good shape.

– Cameron Smith, AP Photo